Santa Catarina forecasts garlic and onion output to fall more than 20%
Santa Catarina expects garlic and onion production to decline by more than 20% in the new harvest, according to Epagri/Cepa. Lower planted area follows a season of record yields but prices below production costs, while excessive rainfall poses an additional risk.
Planted area contracts after a loss-making season
Garlic and onion production in Santa Catarina is forecast to decline by more than 20% in the new crop cycle, according to the state’s Center for Agricultural Socioeconomics and Planning, Epagri/Cepa. Planting has been completed, but farmers face two major constraints: a reduction in cultivated area and forecasts of excessive rainfall during the coming months.
The contraction follows a season in which both crops achieved record productivity but failed to generate adequate returns. High domestic supply pressured market prices below reference production costs. This combination encouraged growers to reduce planting even after favorable weather and improved crop management delivered the strongest yields recorded in recent years.
Onion production forecast at 498,060 tonnes
Santa Catarina’s onion area fell by about 15%, from 19,120 hectares to 16,322 hectares. Production is expected to decline by 21%, from 630,028 tonnes in the previous harvest to 498,060 tonnes in the new cycle. The reduction amounts to 131,968 tonnes and could tighten regional availability compared with the exceptionally large preceding crop.
Average onion productivity reached 32,951 kilograms per hectare in the last harvest, the highest level recorded since at least 2012. Despite this performance, farmers received an average of R$1.08 per kilogram between November 2025 and May 2026, while the reference production cost stood at R$1.75 per kilogram. The gap of R$0.67 per kilogram illustrates why record field performance did not translate into profitability and why producers subsequently cut acreage.
Garlic acreage and output also decline
Garlic followed a similar pattern. Average productivity reached a record 11,831 kilograms per hectare in the previous season, but the average price between January and June 2026 was R$6.42 per kilogram, compared with a reference production cost of R$9.70. For the new crop, planted area declined by almost 17%, from 747 hectares to 623 hectares. Output is forecast to fall from 8,838 tonnes in 2025 to 7,043 tonnes, a reduction of more than 20%.
The smaller harvests could reduce the volume available from Santa Catarina and support firmer grower prices if demand remains stable, although the source provided no national price or import forecast. Market volatility remains the principal challenge because garlic and onion prices are determined by the balance between supply and demand. Epagri/Cepa analyst Lillian Bastian identified diversification, agricultural insurance, processing, and improvements in drying and storage as ways to limit growers’ exposure. She also warned that excessive rainfall could disrupt crop management and production. For onions, careful curing, drying and storage after harvest will be particularly important, increasing the role of technical guidance in protecting the smaller crop’s quality and marketable volume.
