Russian Wheat Exports Fall Almost Fourfold to 347,000 Tonnes in Mid-September

Russian wheat exports fell to 347,000 tonnes during the second ten-day period of September, against 1.3 million tonnes in the same period a year earlier, according to Russian Grain Union figures reported by monocle.ru. Elena Tyurina, director of the union's analytical department, told Interfax that geopolitical restrictions and damage to Black Sea port infrastructure have redirected the main export flows to the Baltic.

The contraction covered the whole grain complex. Barley shipments fell 9.9 times to 21,900 tonnes and corn shipments fell 3.3 times to 11,800 tonnes. Exports of the main grain types totalled 381,000 tonnes over the ten-day period, compared with almost 1.6 million tonnes a year earlier. On the basis of that dynamic, Tyurina forecasts that Russian wheat exports will not exceed 1 million tonnes for September as a whole.

Buyer base narrows from 29 countries to eight

The number of countries importing Russian wheat fell from 29 to eight. Traditional large buyers cut purchases sharply: Egypt reduced imports by 3.6 times and Kenya by 2.3 times, while Turkey bought only 6,100 tonnes against 200,000 tonnes a year earlier. Shipments to Iran rose to 28,600 tonnes, and Mexico appeared as a new destination during the period, taking 25,000 tonnes.

Concentration on the supply side was equally sharp. According to Tyurina, the number of Russian companies exporting wheat fell from 51 to 10 — an indication that only traders with access to the remaining working corridors are still able to ship.

Cargo moves from the Black Sea to the Baltic

Russian Grain Union data show that the loading map has shifted north. Vysotsk led the ten-day period with 135,000 tonnes, and a further 85,000 tonnes left from Ust-Luga. Volumes through the southern gateways collapsed:

• Novorossiysk: 72,500 tonnes, down 9.6 times
• Tuapse: 6,100 tonnes, down 9.3 times

Monocle links the fall at the southern terminals to infrastructure damage caused by Ukrainian drone strikes. The publication reported earlier that in July and August several major ports in the Azov-Black Sea basin — which handle up to 70–80% of Russia's grain exports — were forced to suspend operations. Traders have had to move wheat through the bottleneck of Baltic and Caspian ports, which have limited transshipment capacity, while rail haulage from the southern producing regions sharply increases logistics costs.

Domestic prices at an eight-year September low

Purchase prices paid to Russian producers fell by an average of 100 roubles over the ten-day period, to 8,900 roubles per tonne. In dollar terms that is $105.7 per tonne, the lowest September level in eight years. In the southern regions, where harvesting is complete, storage facilities are almost full, and domestic wheat and barley prices have dropped to break-even and below.

“The situation is hard to forecast, because the potential is clearly large, at last season's level, and demand is also at a decent level, but logistical and geopolitical restrictions make it impossible to predict what will happen next with prices,” Tyurina said.

Monocle reported that if conditions do not change during the autumn, Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, could lose up to a third of its sales on the global market this season. For importers, the immediate consequence is a smaller pool of Russian sellers, a shorter list of served destinations and longer, costlier routings out of the Baltic.