Russian strikes on plants and ports push Ukrainian sunflower down to 18,000–18,500 UAH/t

Purchase prices for sunflower seed in Ukraine fell by another 500–1,000 hryvnia per tonne over the past week, to 18,000–18,500 hryvnia per tonne including VAT, delo.ua reported, citing the Grain Exchange. For seed delivered to crushing plants in central Ukraine that equals $360–365 per tonne excluding VAT. The market is under pressure from Russian strikes on oilseed extraction plants and port infrastructure, which have pushed processors to reduce crush volumes, while export opportunities for the seed itself remain limited.

The move reverses the direction seen a few weeks earlier. In the final week of August, sunflower prices in Ukraine had risen by $20 to $460 per tonne including VAT on a CPT-plant basis, while rapeseed and soybeans appreciated mainly in the western regions and eased on other bases.

Strikes on crushing plants and port infrastructure

Last week Russian strikes hit oilseed extraction plants in Mykolaiv and Dnipro, according to delo.ua. Vessels near the Danube ports and port infrastructure were also attacked. Both points matter for the sunflower chain: the two cities host crushing capacity, while the Danube terminals are the delivery basis quoted for Ukrainian sunflower oil.

Plants are limiting throughput because they do not want to accumulate significant stocks of sunflower oil and meal in warehouses under a constant threat of attack. The practical result is weaker demand for raw material at the plant gate at the exact point in the season when supply is starting to build.

Harvest builds while crush slows

As of 15 September, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 526,620 tonnes of sunflower from 275,400 hectares, or roughly 5% of the planted area. The average yield stands at 1.91 tonnes per hectare, above the level recorded at the start of last season.

Deliveries from the southern and eastern regions, where harvesting is in full swing, have already created queues of up to three to four days for acceptance at plants in central Ukraine. Those queues are forming while the same plants restrict crush, widening the gap between seed on offer and the processing capacity willing to take it.

Oil values fall in Ukraine and India

Pressure on seed is being reinforced by falling prices for finished products. In India, one of the key outlets for sunflower oil, the bid price fell by $10 over the week to $1,430 per tonne CIF Mumbai. The decline comes against increased supply from the Black Sea region.

In Ukraine itself the drop was far sharper. Bid prices for sunflower oil fell by $100 per tonne in a week to $1,100–1,120 delivered to the Danube ports. The market is being affected both by intensified attacks on port infrastructure and by rising freight costs to Constanța in Romania.

Minimum export prices complicate clearance

Lower domestic crush could in principle be offset by higher exports of raw seed, but customs clearance has become an obstacle. According to GrainTrade, the Ministry of Economy raised minimum export prices for sunflower seed and sunflower oil to levels above prevailing market prices, which has effectively complicated the processing of export operations.

Bid prices for Ukrainian sunflower delivered to Bulgaria fell by a further $10 over the week to $540–550 per tonne, pressured by larger supply from both Bulgarian farmers and Ukrainian sellers. With domestic crush shrinking, export channels constrained and the risk of new strikes on plants and port infrastructure, purchase prices for sunflower in Ukraine may stay under pressure, delo.ua reported.