Russian grain stocks fall 10.1% as export and harvest outlook weakens
Grain and pulse stocks held by Russian agricultural organizations, excluding corn, fell 10.1% year on year to 23.7 million tonnes by August 1, 2026. Lower wheat inventories, weaker harvest forecasts and logistical constraints could limit export availability, although corn stocks increased sharply.
Wheat drives the decline in inventories
Russian agricultural organizations held 23.7 million tonnes of grain and pulses, excluding corn, as of August 1, 2026. That was 10.1% below the 26.4 million tonnes recorded on the same date in 2025. The figures cover large commercial agricultural entities involved in production, storage and primary processing, rather than household farms.
Wheat accounted for most of the available volume. Stocks declined 6.3% year on year, from 19.9 million to 18.7 million tonnes. Corn moved in the opposite direction: inventories increased from 143,200 to 960,100 tonnes. This rise provides additional supply for feed and processing markets, but its scale is not sufficient to offset the broader reduction in grain and pulse holdings.
Producer prices remain under pressure
Average producer prices for wheat stood at ₽12,419 per tonne in July, compared with ₽13,538 a year earlier and ₽12,440 in June 2026. Corn fell to ₽12,985 per tonne from ₽16,460 in July 2025 and ₽13,092 in June. Barley declined to ₽11,821 per tonne, against ₽12,569 a year earlier and ₽13,484 in the previous month.
Buckwheat was the exception to the year-on-year decline. Its July price reached ₽18,345 per tonne, up from ₽11,490 in July 2025, although it remained below the June level of ₽19,430. The mixed price picture indicates that reduced aggregate stocks have not translated into broad price gains. Export logistics, procurement conditions and the supply balance for individual crops continue to determine producer returns.
Export constraints coincide with a lower harvest forecast
Russian grain exports in August were projected at 2.5 million tonnes because of difficulties affecting shipments through the Azov-Black Sea basin. That volume would be 2.3 times below the five-year average. Amid the logistical problems, wheat export prices fell to $224 per tonne, while procurement prices at Black Sea ports declined to ₽13,000 per tonne.
The inventory decline also comes alongside a weaker production outlook. The 2026 forecast for Russian grain and pulse output was reduced by 2.7 million tonnes to 134.7 million tonnes. Wheat production may fall to 86.85 million tonnes and barley output to 19.2 million tonnes. The grain-planted area could contract by 4.1% to 41.97 million hectares. For exporters, lower opening stocks and a reduced crop forecast narrow the supply cushion, but near-term shipment capacity remains constrained by port logistics. Domestic processors may therefore face adequate physical availability in the short term while producers encounter weaker access to export demand and lower prices at key procurement points.
