Russian wheat and barley purchase prices fall as new harvest meets export bottlenecks
Russian wheat purchase prices fell by 1.3%-2.3% in the week of July 20-26, while barley dropped 6.5%, according to SovEcon data cited by Mail.ru. New-crop supply and restrictions on navigation through the Azov-Don Canal are slowing exports and increasing pressure on the domestic market.
New crop pushes purchase prices lower
Russian grain purchase prices have entered a downward cycle as newly harvested supplies reach the market while export logistics struggle to absorb them. Materials from agricultural consultancy SovEcon, cited by Mail.ru, show that prices declined across the main wheat categories and barley during the week of July 20-26.
Third-class wheat fell by 1.3% over the week to 12,950 rubles per tonne. Fourth-class wheat declined by 2.3% to 12,600 rubles, while fifth-class wheat lost 2% to reach 11,080 rubles per tonne. Barley recorded the sharpest weekly movement, falling 6.5% to 10,780 rubles per tonne. Sunflower prices also decreased by 2.1% to 40,200 rubles per tonne.
Annual losses approach 13%
The decline is also substantial in year-on-year terms. Wheat purchase prices were 8.6%-8.9% below their level a year earlier. KSM data cited by Mail.ru put the export price of wheat at the port of Novorossiysk at 15,100 rubles per tonne on July 24, down 9.6% year on year. Barley’s export price fell by 12.2% to 13,000 rubles per tonne.
Business FM described the broader annual reduction in prices for major grains as approximately 9%-13% compared with 2025. The difference between domestic and port prices highlights the cost and capacity constraints separating farms from export demand. The pressure is particularly acute during harvest, when producers need storage space and working capital and may have limited ability to postpone sales.
Azov route restrictions slow shipments
SovEcon linked the trend to rising new-crop supply and disruptions at ports on the Sea of Azov. Russian exporters have faced navigation restrictions in the Azov-Don Canal since July 10 following drone attacks. Mail.ru reported that the route accounted for 25% of total Russian grain exports, while Business FM said the Sea of Azov handled up to one-third of Russian wheat exports.
Some cargoes are being redirected to Black Sea and northwestern ports, but their capacity is constrained during the peak season. Agricultural analyst Nikolai Lychev told Business FM that the harvest arrived later this year because of rain and other precipitation, with large volumes beginning to enter the market in the first ten days of July. He also identified higher wages, taxes and other logistics costs for exporters and agricultural producers as an additional source of pressure.
Export outlook depends on logistics
Lychev said Russia could catch up on exports if tensions ease, given the quality of its logistics channels. Alternatives through the Caspian Sea or northwestern Russia could partially reduce the problem, although continued disruption could prevent both Russia and Ukraine from meeting their grain and vegetable-oil export plans for the 2026-2027 season.
Analysts cited by Business FM forecast that Russian grain exports could decline by almost 20% in the second half of the year and expect domestic prices to continue falling in the near term. That creates a divergence between the Russian market and international wheat prices, which Lychev said had started to rise amid developments involving Iran and the Russia-Ukraine conflict. For Russian farmers and exporters, weaker domestic prices combined with higher logistics costs threaten margins after three seasons of declining earnings and depleted financial reserves.
