Russian grain exports forecast to fall by a factor of 1.6 in the first quarter of 2026/27

Grain exports from Russia are forecast to fall by a factor of 1.6 in the first quarter of the 2026/27 agricultural season, to 8.5 million tonnes, marketpower.pro reported. The contraction is concentrated in wheat and coincides with the shutdown of the main transshipment capacity in Novorossiysk, the country's largest grain port.

Wheat accounts for most of the shortfall

Shipments for July-September are projected as follows, measured against the same period of the previous season:

• wheat: 4.8 million tonnes, against 10.6 million tonnes a year earlier;
• maize: 0.6 million tonnes;
• barley: 0.8 million tonnes.

Wheat alone therefore accounts for a decline of 5.8 million tonnes, the bulk of the overall quarterly drop. For the main export crop the situation is problematic, analysts at ProZerno said, as quoted by marketpower.pro.

Iran displaces Turkey at the top of the buyer list

According to ProZerno, the halt at Novorossiysk has reshaped the structure of buyers. Iran has become the largest importer of Russian grain with a 17.2% share, purchasing mainly maize and barley. Egypt and Azerbaijan follow. Turkey, historically one of the principal destinations for Russian wheat, has seen its share shrink to 2%.

“Iran has become the main buyer because the Caspian works,” ProZerno analysts said. The comment points to the substitution of deep-sea Black Sea routes with Caspian shipments, which favour coarse grains destined for nearby markets over large wheat cargoes bound for North Africa.

Full-season exports seen between 39 and 45 million tonnes

Under a pessimistic scenario, in which full-scale loading in the Azov-Black Sea basin does not resume, grain exports for the entire season would total 39 million tonnes. The optimistic scenario puts them at 45 million tonnes. The six-million-tonne gap between the two outcomes rests on port logistics rather than on crop availability.

Supply itself is not the binding constraint. The total grain harvest this year is forecast at 134.8 million tonnes, including 88.1 million tonnes of wheat, compared with 141.2 million tonnes gathered in 2025. A smaller crop combined with restricted export capacity implies heavier carry-over stocks inside the country if loading does not normalise.

Other Russian agri-food flows to China diverge

Separate trade data published on 20 September showed Russia increased its export revenue from buckwheat shipments to China by almost 27% year on year in August, to $4.9 million. Over the first eight months of the year, the total value of those shipments reached $51.4 million, down 15% from the same period a year earlier. Russia remains the main supplier of the crop to the Chinese market.

Beer moved in the opposite direction. In January-August 2026 Russia exported beer to China worth $4.1 million, 2.2 times less than in the same period of the previous year. Monthly export revenue fell to $489,500 in August from $912,300 in July. Chinese beer shipments to Russia over the same eight months rose by a third, to $39 million.