Russian fertilizer output rises 4% as exports reach 45 million tonnes

Production and exports extend recovery

Russia increased mineral fertilizer production by 4% in 2025 to 65.5 million tonnes, from 63 million tonnes a year earlier, according to figures reported by Zol.ru. Exports rose faster, gaining 7% to reach 45 million tonnes. The results extended the industry’s annual recovery following a brief downturn in 2022.

The Russian Association of Fertilizer Producers, known as RAPU, expects output to increase to 66 million tonnes in 2026 and exports to reach 46 million tonnes. The association said global demand strengthened from the spring as disruptions affected supplies of raw materials and major fertilizer products from the Middle East.

Russia has substantial positions in the global production and trade of nitrogen, phosphate and potash fertilizers. According to RAPU, approximately 75% of Russian fertilizer exports went to countries classified by Russia as friendly in 2025, compared with 69% in 2019. Producers have redirected trade flows and expanded in alternative markets despite external restrictions.

BRICS markets take almost half of exports

Global fertilizer trade reached 242 million tonnes in 2025, with Russia accounting for 19%, Zol.ru reported. Russian shipments to BRICS countries increased by 6% from 2024 to 22.8 million tonnes, representing almost half of the country’s total fertilizer exports. Compared with 2021, shipments to the bloc were 71% higher.

The export figures show that BRICS destinations have become central to the industry’s sales base. This concentration gives Russian producers large-volume outlets but also makes logistics, settlement channels and demand in those markets increasingly important to capacity utilization. Domestic deliveries remain another component of the industry’s longer-term expansion plan.

By 2030, Russia plans to raise fertilizer production to 80 million tonnes, according to RAPU. The plan envisages increasing domestic supplies by 20% to 22 million tonnes, expanding exports by 1.5 times to 58 million tonnes and lifting Russia’s share of the world fertilizer market to 25%. RAPU says Russia has surpassed the United States, India and Canada in output and has retained second place globally behind China in recent years.

Profitability remains strong, but prices are the main risk

Expert RA assessed the operating and financial profiles of most Russian fertilizer producers as strong at the end of 2025 and does not expect a material change in their position through the end of 2026. The rating agency said global and domestic demand supported prices and production growth, while Russian producers remained among the most competitive internationally on costs. It expects profitability to remain high in 2026.

The agency identified a reversal in global fertilizer prices as the sector’s principal risk because it could materially affect earnings and margins. High borrowing costs under the Bank of Russia’s tight monetary policy are also putting pressure on interest coverage. Nevertheless, average leverage is declining, capital expenditure is described as moderate, and operating cash generation remains stable. Expert RA said liquidity was comfortable, part of the short-term debt had already been repaid or refinanced by mid-2026, and it did not expect a substantial increase in sector borrowing by year-end except at individual companies financing operating or investment needs.