Russian fertilizer exports hold steady as EU tariffs redirect trade flows
Russian fertilizer exports are expected to remain near 2025 levels in 2026 despite a collapse in shipments to the European Union. Higher sales to the United States, Brazil and other markets, along with firm prices, are supporting revenue.
EU shipments fall more than twentyfold
Russian fertilizer producers are redirecting sales after additional European Union tariffs sharply reduced access to their former European market. EU countries imported 68,700 tonnes of Russian nitrogen and compound fertilizers between January and May 2026, according to MK, citing Poland’s Farmer.pl. Imports exceeded 1.5 million tonnes in the same period of 2025, meaning the flow contracted by more than twentyfold.
The EU introduced additional duties on certain Russian and Belarusian fertilizers on 1 July 2025 without imposing a complete ban. The initial charge added €40–45 per tonne to the base tariff of 6.5%. According to the European Commission figures reported by MK, the additional duty is scheduled to increase gradually to €430 per tonne by 2028.
US and Brazilian sales offset lost European business
Russian suppliers have partly compensated by expanding in other agricultural markets. The value of fertilizer exports to the United States reached $820 million in the first four months of 2026, up from $529 million a year earlier. The United States became the largest destination for Russian nitrogen fertilizers. Sales to Brazil rose from $126 million to $171 million, while exports to Serbia more than tripled to almost $60 million. Russia also retained significant business with India and other major agricultural markets.
In 2025, the United States purchased more than $1.3 billion of Russian nitrogen fertilizers. Russia’s total global mineral fertilizer export revenue approached $18 billion, compared with about $15.4 billion in 2024, Farmer.pl reported. The figures indicate that lower EU volumes did not translate into a decline in the industry’s total export revenue.
Volumes remain stable, but product markets diverge
Kommersant reported that Russia exported 45 million tonnes of fertilizers in 2025. Gazprombank’s Economic Forecasting Center estimated first-half 2026 shipments at 23.2 million tonnes, unchanged from the first half of 2025. However, Implementa consultant Egor Kozlov reported a decline, attributing it to temporary export restrictions, unplanned plant maintenance and winter logistics problems in the Baltic. Expert RA expects full-year exports to remain level or grow slightly if prices stay above their 2025 averages.
Conditions differ sharply by product. Nitrogen fertilizer prices doubled in March and April after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and restrictions on Chinese urea exports, reaching $800 per tonne FOB Baltic at their peak. Urea subsequently returned to $350–400 per tonne after China resumed exports and allocated quotas for 2 million tonnes from June through August, equivalent to about 10% of global exports. Phosphate prices rose 27% in March and April and remained above $800 per tonne as higher sulfur costs and absent Chinese supply supported the market.
EuroChem said June urea prices had returned to levels seen before the Middle East conflict, while phosphate fertilizers remained 20–30% higher than before the Persian Gulf escalation. Potassium chloride increased by a more moderate 5–10%, mainly because of higher freight rates. EuroChem’s first-half fertilizer exports were almost unchanged year on year, although potassium chloride shipments increased 16% and exports of ammonium phosphate and DAP recorded double-digit growth. Analysts expect potash to remain comparatively stable, while nitrogen will stay sensitive to gas costs, Middle East disruptions, major importers’ purchasing and Chinese exports.
