Russian chocolate prices may rise again as cocoa and coffee markets reverse
Russian chocolate prices fell 1.7% from January through June to 1,527.87 rubles per kilogram after a decline in global cocoa prices. The relief may be temporary as cocoa and coffee quotations began rising in July, increasing the prospect of higher producer prices in the second half of 2026.
Retail prices reflect cocoa’s earlier decline
Chocolate prices in Russia declined for six consecutive months, falling 1.7% from January through June to 1,527.87 rubles per kilogram, Izvestia reported. The decrease followed a retreat in international cocoa bean prices, although the delayed transmission of raw-material costs into retail prices means Russian consumers are only now seeing part of that earlier correction.
Global cocoa prices lost about 16% during the first half of the year and fell to approximately $4,160 per tonne. In February, quotations reached $3,000 per tonne, their lowest level since June 2023. The fall was linked to weak demand, improving weather and rising inventories in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, which together account for 60% of global cocoa production.
Food manufacturers also responded to expensive cocoa by replacing part of it with nuts and other ingredients. Such reformulation can reduce direct exposure to cocoa costs, but it may also change product composition and the competitive balance between traditional chocolate, confectionery coatings and products with fillings or additives.
Commodity quotations turned upward in July
The downward movement may prove temporary. Exchange prices for cocoa and coffee began rising in July, while Russian manufacturers continued to work through inventories purchased earlier. According to Izvestia, prices for cocoa products have already increased by 10–20% since the beginning of the year, creating additional cost pressure that has not yet been fully transferred to finished goods.
If the upward trend persists, manufacturers could raise their selling prices in the second half of 2026. Some companies are trying to limit visible price increases by introducing more products with added ingredients or reducing package weights. These measures may slow growth in the shelf price of an individual pack, but they do not remove the underlying increase in the cost of cocoa-based inputs.
Coffee adds another source of pressure
Coffee prices had been declining since August 2025 as favorable weather supported supply from Brazil, which provides about 40% of global coffee exports. That trend also reversed in July: arabica prices rose 10% to roughly $7,500 per tonne, while robusta gained 8% to about $4,000 per tonne.
The reported drivers include forecasts for smaller harvests in Vietnam and Indonesia because of El Niño, declining warehouse stocks and the risk of frost in Brazil. Growing demand in China, India and Indonesia is adding further support. These factors affect both international traders and Russian roasters because they tighten the outlook for the two main commercial coffee varieties.
Russia represents around 5% of the global coffee market, making higher bean prices a material cost issue for domestic processors and retailers. Izvestia said coffee raw materials are projected to become about 10% more expensive annually over the next five years. For chocolate and coffee producers alike, the timing of inventory replacement will determine how quickly the renewed rise in commodity markets reaches wholesale contracts and retail shelves.
