Russian and Chinese car brands draw level in Russia’s new-car market
Russian and Chinese brands held 40.6% and 40.9% respectively of Russia’s new passenger-car market in January-July 2026. Avtostat head Sergey Tselikov expects domestic brands to finish the year slightly ahead, at about 43% against 41%.
Market shares separated by 0.3 percentage points
Russian and Chinese brands entered the second half of 2026 with almost identical positions in Russia’s new passenger-car market. Domestic marques accounted for 40.6% of sales in January-July, while Chinese brands held 40.9%, according to figures reported by Pravda.ru. The gap between the two groups was only 0.3 percentage points.
Together, Russian and Chinese manufacturers controlled 81.5% of the market during the seven-month period. This concentration leaves less than one-fifth of new passenger-car sales to brands from other countries and makes competition between the two leading groups the central feature of the Russian market.
The figures describe shares of total new-car sales rather than the number of vehicles delivered. They therefore show the relative position of each group but do not establish whether either Russian or Chinese manufacturers increased their sales volumes in absolute terms. A change in overall market size could move unit sales and market share in different directions.
Domestic brands could move ahead by December
Sergey Tselikov, head of the Avtostat agency, expects the balance to shift modestly in favor of Russian brands by the end of 2026. His forecast puts domestic marques at about 43% of the full-year market and Chinese brands at around 41%. That would produce a gap of roughly 2 percentage points.
The forecast implies a limited change in the composition of sales, not a sharp reversal. With the two groups separated by only 0.3 percentage points after seven months, relatively small changes between August and December could determine which finishes the year in first place. The final outcome will also depend on movements in total sales because market share measures each group against a changing market.
Russian brands would need to improve their position during the remaining months to reach the projected 43%. Chinese manufacturers, meanwhile, would remain close to their January-July share if they ended the year at approximately 41%. Even under Tselikov’s scenario, the market would continue to be divided almost evenly between the two groups.
LADA and Haval anchor their respective groups
LADA remains the leading Russian brand. It ranked first in Russia’s new-car market in July, while the LADA Granta topped the model ranking. These positions give the domestic group a strong volume anchor as it seeks to overtake Chinese manufacturers in the full-year standings.
Haval remains the leading Chinese marque. The broader contest, however, is based on the combined results of multiple brands rather than the performance of one manufacturer or one month. Sales during the remainder of 2026 will show whether LADA’s leadership is enough to lift Russian brands to the forecast 43%, or whether Chinese marques can preserve the narrow advantage recorded in January-July.