Russia's Wholesale Power Price Seen at 6,500-6,900 Rubles per MWh by 2042
Analysts at SKM.PRO calculate that Russia's single-rate wholesale electricity price could reach 6,500-6,900 rubles per MWh by 2042, rising 1.6-1.7 times faster than inflation in 2026 prices. The main driver is a capacity build-out of 88.5 GW, which would lift the capacity component to 65% of the price. Consumption is currently flat, with the System Operator reporting a 0.1% decline since the start of the year.
The single-rate wholesale electricity price in Russia could reach 6,500-6,900 rubles per MWh by 2042, according to calculations by SKM.PRO cited by Kommersant. The indicator combines two components: payment for kilowatt-hours actually consumed and payment for maintaining the readiness of generating capacity, which makes it a measure of the total load carried by the consumer.
The central finding of the SKM.PRO work is that the price will rise regardless of how demand develops. The main cost driver is the large-scale programme of construction and modernisation of generating capacity, for which regulators are still searching for funding sources. Measured in 2026 prices, the increase is expected to outpace inflation by a factor of 1.6-1.7.
Capacity to account for 65% of the price
The internal structure of the single-rate price is set to shift. At present the cost of the energy itself and the cost of capacity account for roughly equal shares. In sixteen years, capacity is expected to take 65% of the total, according to the SKM.PRO estimates reported by Kommersant.
The shift reflects the commissioning schedule embedded in the General Scheme for the Siting of Electric Power Facilities, which provides for 88.5 GW of new units. Wholesale consumers pay not only for the resource itself but also for keeping turbines and generators in working condition so that the system can cover peak load at any moment. A build-out on that scale therefore lands on the capacity line of the bill rather than on the energy line.
Demand scenarios span growth and contraction
SKM.PRO examined a range of consumption paths. The optimistic scenario assumes annual growth of 1.71%, driven by the development of data centres. The downside scenario assumes a decline of 0.23% a year if energy-intensive enterprises move to their own generation. Neither outcome removes the upward pressure on price, because the capacity component is tied to the investment programme rather than to volumes consumed.
State programmes are built on average annual demand growth of 1.87%, above even the optimistic case in the SKM.PRO analysis. That gap argues for flexible revision of the plans in line with the actual readiness of projects.
Consumption is flat this year
Current data do not support the growth assumption. Fyodor Opadchy, head of the System Operator, said at the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF-2026) that electricity consumption in Russia had fallen 0.1% since the start of the year. Analysts at Euler Analytical Technologies and Kept expect 2026 to close with growth of between 0% and 1%, or even a slight contraction, citing warm weather and weakness in industry.
Spot prices fell across all zones in August
On 10 August, free prices on the Russian power market declined in every price zone. In European Russia and the Urals electricity was priced at 1,965.67 rubles per MWh, while in Siberia the figure fell to 1,287.24 rubles per MWh. The sharpest drop came in the Far East, where the price fell by almost 10% to 2,705.45 rubles per MWh, the lowest level recorded in 2026.
The distance between those spot levels and the 2042 projection shows where the increase is expected to originate. Current free prices reflect fuel costs and a soft load; the forecast increase is largely an investment charge attached to capacity that has not yet been built, and regulators have not yet settled how it will be financed.
