Russia’s Wheat Harvest Reaches 75 Million Tonnes as Yields Rise 8%

Harvest maintains a nine-million-tonne lead

Russia has harvested 75 million tonnes of wheat, 9 million tonnes more than at the same stage last year, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said on the sidelines of a United Russia party congress. Wheat yields have increased by 8%, while the crop will be sufficient to cover the country’s domestic requirements in full, Interfax reported.

The figures indicate a strong pace of fieldwork but do not yet settle the question of final production. Lut said the previous week that Russia’s total grain harvest was approaching 100 million tonnes. A large part of the crop, however, was still being gathered across central and eastern producing regions, leaving the outcome exposed to late-season weather.

Wheat forecasts remain below 90 million tonnes

SovEcon reduced its forecast for Russia’s wheat crop from 88.5 million to 88.2 million tonnes after revising its planted-area data, Finmarket reported. The consultancy lowered its estimate for the Volga region by 0.6 million tonnes to 18.5 million tonnes and cut Siberia by 0.5 million tonnes to 7.4 million tonnes. Its forecast for the South was raised by 0.7 million tonnes to 37.3 million tonnes.

The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies, or IKAR, has a higher estimate. Its chief executive, Dmitry Rylko, previously told Agroinvestor that the institute expected 138.5 million tonnes of grain, including 90 million tonnes of wheat. He said the wheat projection could be revised downward, while the barley estimate, then at 19 million tonnes, could be increased.

The gap between the wheat forecasts is 1.8 million tonnes. Both estimates would cover domestic demand, according to the Agriculture Ministry’s assessment, but the final result will determine the volume potentially available beyond the domestic market. For producers and grain traders, regional crop quality, harvesting losses and the timing of remaining fieldwork will therefore matter alongside the headline tonnage.

Lower profitability reduces spring wheat area

SovEcon said farmers in the Volga region and Siberia continued to reduce spring wheat planting because of declining profitability. Difficult weather also weakened the outlook in Siberia. In the Novosibirsk region, authorities declared a regional emergency after crops were lost across more than 19,500 hectares.

Agroinvestor reported that hot, dry winds and atmospheric and soil drought during June and July caused the damage. Air temperatures exceeded 30 degrees Celsius, while the upper soil layer reached 60 degrees. These conditions help explain why the national harvest can remain well ahead of last year even as forecasts are trimmed for individual regions.

Southern regions are close to completion

As of 19 August, grain and legume harvesting was 99.6% complete in the Southern Federal District and 91% complete in the North Caucasus. The share was 48% in both the Central and Volga districts. The active harvesting phase covered nearly all of European Russia.

A substantial year-on-year increase in wheat and barley production was expected in the Southern Federal District. The Central and Volga districts were set to record lower overall grain output, although the reduction was not considered critical in volume terms. The final balance still depends on the most difficult pre-autumn stage of harvesting and the weather during that period.

SovEcon also cut its barley forecast from 19.5 million to 19.2 million tonnes and its corn estimate from 15.2 million to 14.1 million tonnes. Its projection for total grain and legume production was reduced from 135.3 million to 132.6 million tonnes. The broader revisions show that the 75-million-tonne wheat milestone is strong, but remaining weather risks and lower planted area continue to limit the production outlook.