Russia's 2026 Rice Harvest Seen Falling 32.5% to 834,000 Tonnes
ProZerno projects Russia's 2026 rice crop at 834,000 tonnes, down 32.5% from 1.235 million tonnes in 2025. Buckwheat, millet, oats and rye are all forecast lower as well. Company head Vladimir Petrichenko said the volumes still cover domestic consumption and that the smaller harvests will support producer prices.
Russia's rice harvest is set to fall by almost a third in 2026. Output is projected at 834,000 tonnes, down 32.5% from 1.235 million tonnes in 2025, according to Vladimir Petrichenko, general director of the agricultural analysis company ProZerno, who presented the forecast at the Grain of Siberia forum in Barnaul.
The projection places rice among the weakest performers in this year's Russian crop balance, and it is not an isolated case. ProZerno expects lower harvests across every major groats crop, from buckwheat and millet to oats and rye. Petrichenko did not attribute the rice decline to a specific factor in the remarks made at the forum, and no revised area or yield figures were given alongside the output forecast.
Groats crops decline across the board
Buckwheat, the second pillar of Russian groats consumption alongside rice, is forecast at 801,000 tonnes, a drop of 13.5% from 926,000 tonnes a year earlier. The declines in the smaller crops are steeper in percentage terms, with millet losing close to a third of its volume.
- Rice: 834,000 tonnes, down 32.5% from 1.235 million tonnes
- Buckwheat: 801,000 tonnes, down 13.5% from 926,000 tonnes
- Millet: 247,000 tonnes, down almost 30%
- Oats: 3.097 million tonnes, down 18.6%
- Rye: 921,000 tonnes, down 8%
Oats remain by far the largest of the five crops by volume, at just over 3 million tonnes even after an 18.6% reduction, while millet is the smallest at 247,000 tonnes. ProZerno's figures include year-earlier comparison volumes for rice and buckwheat; for millet, oats and rye the forecast was expressed as a percentage change from 2025.
Domestic demand still covered
Petrichenko said the projected volumes will fully cover Russia's domestic consumption, and that the situation is therefore not critical. Rice and buckwheat form the core of groats demand in the country, which makes their trajectory the one that matters most for millers, packers and food retailers planning supply for the coming season.
He framed the smaller harvest as a market positive for the supply side, saying the reduction will “in market terms play a very positive role for the price, for producers”. Lower volumes against stable consumption point to firmer prices at the farm gate, with the adjustment working its way through processing and into shelf prices. For rice in particular, a one-third cut in a crop grown in a narrow set of southern Russian regions leaves little room for an exportable surplus without drawing on stocks.
The forum and the wider agricultural picture
The Grain of Siberia forum, held in Altai Krai, took place for the fifth time and drew about 170 participants from Russian regions as well as from Kazakhstan and South Korea.
Other recent indicators from the Russian agricultural sector point in a different direction. Agricultural trade between Russia and Uzbekistan rose 31.7% in the first seven months of 2026 to $1.55 billion, as reported on 21 August. The two sides discussed expanding turnover through joint projects, including sugar shipments from Romodanovosakhar and wider distribution of Uzbek fruit and vegetables in Russian stores, alongside exchanges of experience in dairy and meat livestock farming.
In horticulture, greenhouse vegetable output in Russia's organized sector passed 1 million tonnes by the start of August, 3.5% more than in the same period a year earlier. Greenhouse tomatoes led that growth, rising 8.9% to 424,000 tonnes. For groats, however, the 2026 picture is one of tighter supply and, on ProZerno's reading, better prices for the farms that produce them.
