Russia’s red caviar market shifts toward premium pricing as salmon catch declines

Smaller salmon catch tightens the raw-material base

Russia’s red caviar industry is preparing for a period of lower supply and persistently higher prices after a sharp contraction in the salmon catch. According to the Russian Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography, fishermen had harvested about 97,992 tonnes of salmon by September 24. That was 3.4 times less than at the same point in the previous odd-numbered year and 2.3 times less than in the previous even-numbered year, FederalPress reported.

Ilya Shestakov, head of Russia’s Federal Agency for Fisheries, said on September 4 that the full-year catch could fall roughly threefold to between 100,000 and 110,000 tonnes. Lower landings will reduce the volume of roe available to processors. Despite that contraction, the authorities do not plan to restrict red caviar exports, according to FederalPress.

The latest figures extend a volatile production trend. Russia produced 23,985 tonnes of red caviar in 2023, but output fell to 10,257 tonnes in 2024 before recovering to 12,582 tonnes in 2025. Earlier data cited by FederalPress show production of 13,256 tonnes in 2017, 22,014 tonnes in 2018 and 21,296 tonnes in 2019. The 2018 result coincided with a record salmon catch of 676,000 tonnes, although inventories and processing and storage capacity mean record catches do not always translate directly into record caviar output.

Industry argues for a premium price

German Zverev, president of the All-Russian Association of Fisheries Enterprises, Entrepreneurs and Exporters, estimates that an economically justified red caviar price should equal about 15–16% of the price of black caviar and reach no more than 20% during peak-demand periods. He argues that the previous perception of red caviar as a relatively inexpensive product was partly created by large volumes of poached and low-quality goods.

In the industry’s view, cheap illegal supply damaged both fish stocks and the economics of legitimate coastal businesses. Stronger quality controls and the removal of rejected batches are now reducing the legal volume available to the market. This supports prices but also shifts sales toward regulated producers and processors.

Producer prices have already risen much faster than retail prices. Agrotime, citing consultancy Neo, reported that producers’ selling prices increased by 344% between 2017 and 2025, compared with a 197% rise for final consumers. Expert Albina Koryagina told FederalPress that this gap reflected higher raw-material and harvesting costs rather than simply speculative retail margins.

Consumption may adjust without a physical shortage

Zverev does not expect red caviar to disappear from stores, but he believes the salmon resource may have entered a long-term period of lower biomass. FederalPress cited his comparison with the period after 1958, when weak salmon catches persisted for almost 30 years, followed by strong harvests from the late 1980s. If the present decline also proves prolonged, premium pricing could become a durable feature of the market rather than a temporary spike.

Higher prices would instead change how the product is consumed. Households may choose smaller packages, buy caviar less frequently or switch to more affordable types of roe. Expert Artem Suvorov described this as an adjustment of supply and demand to a smaller raw-material base, rather than evidence of a market crisis. For fishing companies and processors, the central issue is whether prices can cover the rising cost of legal harvesting while catches remain close to the projected 100,000–110,000-tonne range. For retailers, the likely response is a narrower premium market with lower per-capita consumption but continued physical availability.