Russian pork consumption hits record 31 kg per capita as price gap with chicken closes

Pork consumption in Russia has reached an all-time high of more than 31 kilograms per person per year, Yury Kovalev, general director of the National Union of Swine Breeders, said in an interview with URA.RU. Pork now makes up close to 40% of Russian meat demand: riamo.ru cites a share of 38%, while Pravda.ru describes it as almost 40%. From the 1990s until roughly 2020 the share held steady at 32-33%.

Total meat consumption in the country rose 16% over the past ten years to 83 kilograms per person. Pork consumption climbed 34% over the same period, more than twice the pace of the market as a whole. The shift came almost entirely from price, not from any change in production technology or product range.

A decade of price restraint

Cumulative food inflation in Russia over the decade reached 90%, according to figures Kovalev gave riamo.ru. Beef prices rose 70-80% and poultry 50-60%, while pork added only 35%. Steady annual increases in output kept pork rising more slowly than every other major protein.

The gap has closed the distance to chicken. At wholesale, a pork half-carcass now costs the same as a whole chicken carcass; the chicken is slightly cheaper but is sold bone-in. Boneless pork is already more expensive than chicken breast fillet. For meat processors and retail buyers, the substitution calculation that favoured poultry for most of the past decade no longer holds at these prices.

Sales outran production in the first half

In the first half of the year, pork sales in volume terms rose 13% year on year, while production grew 5-6%. The mismatch sharpened competition between domestic producers and pushed wholesale prices down. Retail pork prices were essentially flat across the six months, even as other meats continued to rise.

Producer profitability fell noticeably over the same period. Additional pressure came from increased imports of poultry meat, mainly from China, which competes directly with pork in the lower price segment. According to riamo.ru, conditions began to improve in the summer with the barbecue season, while the rate of production growth started to slow.

The cost base leaves producers little flexibility:

• feed accounts for about 70% of the cost of producing pork;
• wages account for a further 10-12%;
• exports equal 10% of output, and imports are practically absent from the market.

Irina Kostina, a labour market economist quoted by Pravda.ru, said the 10-12% wage share is a significant factor and that, with producer profitability falling, it may limit scope for raising incomes in the industry.

Export outlets and the next two to three years

The Russian pork market is effectively independent of imports. Exports are equivalent to 10% of total output and are split evenly: half goes to former Soviet republics, and half to Southeast Asia, including China, Vietnam and Hong Kong. With domestic demand at a record and production growth slowing, external sales are the only remaining outlet for additional volume.

Kovalev does not expect significant further growth in pork consumption over the next two to three years, arguing that the historic maximum has already been reached and competition between producers remains high. On prices, he said pork is unlikely to keep lagging so far behind general food inflation: “they will apparently change within its limits, somewhat below.” Pravda.ru reports the same outlook — pork will stop significantly trailing food inflation and will rise within it, though still somewhat below the average rate.