Russia's cattle herd shrinks in early 2026, beef prices climb 16%

The cattle herd at Russian agricultural enterprises contracted in the first quarter of 2026, adding pressure to a beef market where prices are already rising sharply. According to Rosstat data cited by Kommersant, the number of cattle at agricultural organizations fell 0.8% year on year in January–March 2026 to 7.3 million head, while the cow population dropped 1.7% to 2.9 million head.

Siberia leads the decline

The sharpest regional falls came in Siberia. In Novosibirsk Oblast, cattle numbers lost 11% over the year to 212,900 head, and cows fell 13.1% to 88,000 head. Altai Krai also recorded a marked contraction, with cattle down 1.7% to 255,800 head and cows down 6.5% to 95,400 head.

Andrey Kucherov, director of the agribusiness competence centre at Reksoft Consulting, said the steeper drop in Siberia reflects the weaker economics of some farms there. Market participants in Novosibirsk Oblast pointed directly to falling milk procurement prices, more expensive fuel and an acute labour shortage. A veterinary factor added to the pressure: Artem Belov, director general of the dairy producers' union Soyuzmoloko, said the Siberian decline is partly tied to anti-epizootic measures aimed at maintaining animal-health stability.

Consolidation and rising costs

Belov said the drop in the cow herd in the first quarter matched the average annual pace of the past five years, attributing it to a continuing structural shift in the industry. Amid urbanisation and rural depopulation, smaller and mid-sized farms are shrinking and being replaced by larger, more efficient complexes. Albina Koryagina, business development partner at consultancy Neo, agreed that the sharpest cuts hit peasant farms, individual entrepreneurs and household holdings.

Kucherov described the fall in livestock numbers as a long-term trend driven above all by worsening production economics. Despite some easing of costs in early 2026, production costs are now about 3% higher than a year earlier. He estimated that at the end of December 2025 all categories of farms in Russia held 15.8 million head of cattle and 7.3 million cows, down 4.1% and 3.8% year on year.

Russia's Agriculture Ministry told Kommersant that the decline in individual regions early in the year stems from objective epizootic causes, and that the production cycle will recover once restrictions are lifted and the veterinary situation stabilises. The ministry called the situation local, said it does not reflect the national picture, and noted that the adjustment in cattle numbers may also reflect improving livestock efficiency.

Milk holds up, meat under pressure

The smaller cow herd has not cut milk output. Belov said rising productivity is the offsetting factor: annual milk yield per cow grew 4.8% in 2025 to 8,900 kg, and in the first quarter of 2026 average yields per cow rose 2.7%. Koryagina said the sector is moving from extensive herd growth to intensive gains through genetics, feed and automation, allowing higher yields even as the herd shrinks. Kucherov did not rule out localised supply disruptions or regional price spikes where the herd contraction is deepest.

Meat tells a different story. Reksoft Consulting data show that cattle sent for slaughter at agricultural organisations already fell 3.8% in 2025 to 1.1 million tonnes. Kucherov warned that further declines in beef output create price risks for consumers. According to Rosstat, the average price of beef in Russia reached 729.6 rubles per kg on 6 April, up 16.2% year on year. By comparison, pork rose just 6.1% over the same period to 394.1 rubles per kg.

What it means for trade

For importers and processors, the divergence between a stable milk supply and a tightening beef market is the key signal. With slaughter volumes down and beef prices climbing more than twice as fast as pork, domestic supply gaps could widen in regions where the herd is falling fastest, keeping upward pressure on Russian beef prices through 2026.