Rubber prices slide across TOCOM, SHFE and SGX as Chinese tyre demand weakens

Natural rubber prices fell across Asia's main futures venues on 17 September, with contracts on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange (TOCOM), the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) and the Singapore Exchange (SGX) all settling lower alongside Thai physical export offers, according to vietbao.vn. The publication attributed the broad pullback to weakening tyre demand in China and said selling pressure dominated trading across the Asian rubber complex.

Futures decline in Tokyo, Shanghai and Singapore

On TOCOM, the RSS3 contract for October delivery ended the session at 457.80 yen per kilogram, down 1.40%. The November contract fell more sharply in percentage terms, losing 1.91% to 430 yen per kilogram.

On SHFE, natural rubber for September delivery settled at 17,900 yuan per tonne, down 1.54%, while the October contract slipped 1.57% to 17,880 yuan per tonne. Losses were recorded across the whole SHFE curve, in a narrow band of 1.54% to 1.57%. The steepest move of the day came in synthetics: the most actively traded October butadiene rubber contract dropped 565 yuan, or 3.72%, to 14,610 yuan per tonne.

On SGX, TSR20 for October delivery was quoted at 235.40 US cents per kilogram, down 1.22%, and the November contract at 235.10 US cents per kilogram, down 0.80%. vietbao.vn noted that declines narrowed along the SGX curve for more distant months.

Tyre makers trim purchases

Analysts at Chaos Ternary Futures Research Institute, cited by vietbao.vn, said average natural rubber purchase volumes at tyre manufacturers declined over the past week. Raw material costs were rising at the same time, and most companies kept production under control rather than lifting operating rates.

Restrained tyre plant activity matters for the entire chain, because Chinese tyre producers are the principal end-market for natural rubber shipped from Southeast Asia. When manufacturers buy at replacement levels instead of building inventory, the effect appears in futures pricing well before it reaches physical offers at origin.

Thai offers ease, Vietnamese farmgate prices hold

In Thailand, the export offer price for RSS3 on an FOB Laem Chabang basis fell 0.6 baht, or 0.6%, to 92.14 baht per kilogram. In Vietnam, by contrast, processors left their purchase quotes unchanged:

• MangYang: field latex at about 458–463 dong per TSC (grade 2 to grade 1) and mixed coagulum at roughly 404–459 dong per DRC.
• Phu Rieng: scrap rubber at 390 dong per DRC and field latex at 420 dong per TSC.
• Ba Ria Rubber: field latex at 420 dong per TSC per kilogram for TSC content of 25 to under 30; coagulum with 35–44% DRC at 14,600 dong per kilogram; raw latex material at 18,100 dong per kilogram.
• Binh Long: 540 dong per TSC per kilogram at the factory gate and 530 dong per TSC per kilogram at production units; scrap at 60% DRC steady at 18,000 dong per kilogram.

Short-term outlook

vietbao.vn said rubber prices could continue to fluctuate in the near term while selling pressure persists on the exchanges. The pattern across the three venues — uniform declines on SHFE, a heavier fall in the deferred TOCOM contract and shrinking losses in later SGX months — points to position adjustment concentrated in nearby delivery periods rather than a repricing of the entire forward curve.

For exporters in Thailand and Vietnam, the operative question is how long Chinese tyre makers keep purchasing below normal levels while raw material costs remain elevated. Vietnamese farmgate quotes have so far absorbed none of the exchange move, leaving domestic processors with wider margins than the futures market implies, but that gap historically closes within weeks if the futures weakness holds.