Romania’s Illicit Cigarette Market Rises to 13.9% as Supply Mix Shifts

Illicit share records decade-high increase

Romania’s illicit cigarette market rose to 13.9% of total consumption in July 2026, compared with 10.5% in May, according to data from research company Novel Research reported by Ziare.com, Forbes Romania and Ziarul Unirea. The increase of 3.4 percentage points was the sharpest recorded in more than a decade and took the market close to 14% of national cigarette consumption.

Ziare.com reported that the last comparable level was recorded in July 2019, when illicit cigarettes represented 13.7% of the market. The direction of travel was different at that time, however, as the illicit share was declining. The July 2026 reading instead represents a rapid expansion that puts additional pressure on licensed manufacturers, distributors and retailers.

The rise also has implications for Romania’s public finances because cigarettes sold outside legal channels do not generate the excise duties and other taxes collected on legitimate sales. Industry representatives cited by the publications estimated that an annualized illicit-market share of 13.9% would cost the state budget approximately €700 million.

Bucharest and regional markets register steep gains

The expansion was uneven across Romania. Novel Research found that the illicit share in Bucharest increased by 8.1 percentage points to 17.5% of cigarette consumption. The south recorded the country’s highest absolute share at 19.5%, followed by the northeast at 18.8% and the capital at 17.5%.

The source reports differ over the location of the steepest regional increase. Forbes Romania and Ziarul Unirea identified the northwest, where the illicit share rose by 8.4 percentage points to 17.4%. Ziare.com, quoting Novel Research director general Marian Marcu, attributed the same increase and resulting share to the southwest. All three reports agree on the size of the increase and the final 17.4% level.

The concentration of illicit sales in the south, northeast and Bucharest indicates that the issue is not confined to peripheral border areas. BAT regional external affairs director Ileana Negulescu said the readings show that illegal trade is affecting economically important parts of the country, with consequences for budget revenue, legal-market competitiveness and the effectiveness of public policy.

Duty-free and Bulgarian cigarettes gain ground

The composition of Romania’s black market also changed materially. Forbes Romania reported that products purchased through duty-free outlets represented 29.7% of identified illicit cigarettes in July, the largest share by source. Bulgarian products ranked second at 26.9%.

Products of unknown origin exceeded 20% of the illicit market after their share increased by 16.4 percentage points. This rapid rise reduces visibility into supply routes and complicates efforts to determine whether the growth is being driven by cross-border purchases, organized smuggling or other channels.

By contrast, cigarettes originating in Moldova accounted for 10.2% of illicit products, down 4.9 percentage points from the previous measurement. Moldova’s declining share therefore did not translate into a smaller overall black market. Instead, duty-free, Bulgarian and unidentified products occupied a larger position in a rapidly expanding illicit supply base.

Enforcement expands as regulation tightens

Romanian authorities reported substantial seizures during 2026. According to Ziarul Unirea and Ziare.com, the Border Police confiscated approximately 900,000 cigarette packs worth more than 20 million lei during the first seven months of the year. Officers also seized more than 1.1 tonnes of loose tobacco and 152 kilograms of hookah tobacco.

Romanian Police operations over the same seven-month period removed more than 61 million cigarettes and nearly 10 tonnes of tobacco from circulation, while hundreds of criminal cases were opened. Separately, BAT cited data from StopContrabanda.ro indicating that authorities had seized around 105 million cigarettes during the first eight months of the year.

Ziare.com also reported that a joint order issued by Romania’s tax and customs authorities established limits on the quantities of cigarettes that may be brought into the country from other European Union member states. The measure is particularly relevant as Bulgarian-origin products account for more than a quarter of identified illicit cigarettes. The July figures nevertheless show that enforcement seizures and new restrictions have yet to reverse the wider market increase.