Romania faces gas and electricity price increases in winter 2026-2027
Romania’s gas market is likely to become more strained in winter 2026-2027, although a full supply crisis is not the central forecast. Energy expert Dumitru Chisăliţă expects electricity offers to rise by 3-20%, depending on gas storage, import costs and short-term market stress.
A tighter gas market without a certain supply crisis
Romania is heading into a more difficult gas market in winter 2026-2027, but not necessarily a full-blown crisis, according to Dumitru Chisăliţă, president of the Intelligent Energy Association. His assessment, reported by Adevărul and Agerpres, identifies weather, international prices and storage levels as the three main risks for the coming cold season.
Some forecasts indicate that the next winter could be harsher than the period covering 2025 through February 2026. At the same time, the forward direction of international gas prices, particularly at the Dutch TTF benchmark, points to substantially higher prices than during the previous winter. Chisăliţă also said the current share of gas held in storage, both globally and in Europe, is much lower than in previous years.
These factors could combine to reduce the market’s ability to absorb colder weather or supply disruptions. Lower inventories would leave Romania and the wider European market more exposed to additional demand, while higher wholesale gas prices would also affect power generation costs. Chisăliţă described the result as a winter with greater risks and higher prices rather than an inevitable shortage.
Electricity suppliers prepare new offers
The effects are expected to extend beyond gas bills. Romanian electricity suppliers are preparing new consumer offers after market liberalisation took place in August last year. Most contracts were signed for one year, meaning that suppliers must now price new offers using the costs and market conditions recorded during the intervening period.
During the first six months of 2026, Romania had Europe’s second-highest day-ahead electricity market prices after Italy, Chisăliţă said. Suppliers generally sell electricity under fixed-price contracts that incorporate expected costs and risks. Expenses already incurred on the day-ahead market and for system balancing are therefore likely to be recovered through the next round of offers.
Suppliers are also carrying costs associated with what Chisăliţă called an unprecedented crisis in the energy system. Because those companies initially cover the expenses, they are expected to seek repayment through future customer prices. Continued uncertainty may also encourage them to include larger risk premiums to protect against another period of tight balancing and expensive electricity imports.
Three scenarios point to increases of 3-20%
The Intelligent Energy Association analysed three scenarios for August 2026 through July 2027. Under the most favourable case, electricity offers would rise by 3-5%. This scenario reflects the development of day-ahead prices during the first half of 2026 and assumes that the current period of energy stress passes without severe disruption or a major additional price surge.
A more difficult scenario assumes roughly three weeks in which demand exceeds supply, driving day-ahead prices and balancing costs higher. Under those conditions, offers would increase by an estimated 10-15% compared with the current average price. This would directly affect households and companies renewing fixed-price contracts.
The pessimistic scenario combines three weeks of system balancing close to operational limits, expensive imported electricity and only partially filled gas storage facilities. Reduced gas availability and higher gas prices would then feed into electricity generation and retail offers. Chisăliţă estimates that this combination could produce increases of 15-20% during August 2026-July 2027, making storage replenishment and wholesale market conditions critical indicators for Romanian consumers and energy companies.