Romania Warns Energy Bills Could Rise at Least 5% in 2027

Preliminary forecast points to higher bills

Energy bills for Romanian households and companies could rise by at least 5% in 2027, according to an estimate presented by Energy Ministry Secretary General Sorin Elisei on September 2. Digi24 reported that the projection is not final and may be revised as suppliers and producers sign additional contracts for delivery in 2027.

The ministry’s assessment incorporates contracts already concluded, committed electricity volumes and wholesale-market prices. Officials are discussing the data with the energy regulator and expect to provide another assessment in approximately one to two weeks. For a more reliable view of 2027 wholesale electricity prices, however, the ministry believes it needs data from September, October and November.

Romania consumes approximately 50-52 TWh of electricity. Elisei said electricity sold at prices 12% above the comparison level accounts for less than 2-3% of projected national consumption for the following year. Attempts by some producers and suppliers to conclude more contracts at higher prices did not reach the expected scale, while other agreements are due to expire, including at the end of this year.

Gas inventories trail last year

Romania currently has almost 2.3 billion cubic metres of natural gas in storage, and the filling rate is expected to approach 80% by October 1. According to Elisei, this would place Romania above the European Union average. The stored volume is nevertheless approximately 10% lower than at the same point last year.

The official linked the difference partly to higher international gas quotations and volatility associated with developments in the Middle East. Suppliers have become more cautious about buying expensive gas for storage because withdrawal in winter adds storage charges to the original purchase cost. They also risk having difficulty finding customers willing to accept the resulting higher price.

The ministry expects current stocks to cover demand during approximately one week of exceptionally cold weather, with temperatures between -10 and -20 degrees Celsius. That assessment offers a limited security buffer, but the smaller year-on-year inventory and suppliers’ reluctance to store costly gas leave the market sensitive to winter conditions and international price movements.

New capacity may moderate electricity prices

New renewable generation and battery-storage capacity is entering the Romanian system, while additional conventional generating assets are also expected. Elisei said prices could rebalance if the expansion pushes available supply above consumption. He also stressed that high energy prices are a regional and European issue because interconnected markets transmit price movements across borders.

Near-term supply conditions remain affected by work at the Cernavodă nuclear power plant. Water levels in the retention basin have risen, but authorities are still monitoring the effect of the works before setting a timetable for restarting at least one reactor. Elisei said a restart was not expected during the following week.

Coal-fired generation presents a separate regulatory calculation. Romania may face a penalty for failing to meet commitments concerning coal-production capacity under its recovery plan. The European Commission will determine the final amount, while Romanian calculations put an optimistic scenario at €77 million to €124 million. Elisei argued that continued operation of the Turceni 5 unit through the current months, the coming winter, next summer and the following winter could generate more economic value than the potential penalty.

For consumers and suppliers, the 5% forecast therefore remains a working estimate rather than a settled tariff outcome. The small share of electricity already contracted at a 12% premium limits its immediate effect, but expiring contracts, gas costs, nuclear availability and the pace of new capacity additions will determine whether the ministry revises the estimate.