Rising milk supply and weaker exports intensify pressure on Polish dairy farmers

Milk deliveries rise as product prices fall

Poland’s dairy sector is contending with rising raw milk supply, falling product prices and weaker export revenue, a combination that is pushing down procurement prices paid to farmers. Farmer.pl reported that processors received 1.23 billion litres of milk in May, up 3.4% from April and 2.5% from a year earlier. Deliveries from January through May reached 5.85 billion litres, an increase of 3.1% year on year.

The additional milk is feeding higher output across much of the processing industry. Production of whole milk powder increased by 78.7%, while skimmed milk powder output rose by 33.9%. Butter, ripened cheese and curd production also expanded. At the same time, selling prices declined in April for nearly all major dairy categories, with particularly large reductions for whole milk powder, UHT milk, ripened cheese and butter.

During the first four months of 2026, butter and ripened cheese prices were 12–14% below the previous year’s levels, while skimmed milk powder was about 9% cheaper, according to Farmer.pl. The fall was also visible to consumers: average retail butter prices in April were 22.5% lower than a year earlier. Farmers, however, continue to face high expenditure on feed, fuel, energy and agricultural materials, according to Dlahandlu.pl.

Export slowdown exposes a surplus market

Poland produces more milk than its domestic market consumes. Sector self-sufficiency is around 120%, and approximately 4.8 million tonnes in raw-milk equivalent are exported each year, representing about 32% of national production. Poland is the European Union’s fourth-largest cow’s milk producer after Germany, France and the Netherlands, and annual raw milk production has exceeded 15 million tonnes since 2022.

That exposure is now weighing on industry revenue. Dairy exports were worth €1.2 billion from January through April 2026, down 11% year on year. Import value also declined by 11%, while the positive foreign-trade balance contracted by 12% to €0.6 billion. The Agriculture Ministry linked lower Polish procurement prices mainly to expanding milk supply in major global markets, including New Zealand, the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia, from 2025 into the first half of 2026.

Greater international supply has reduced European Union and global dairy selling prices, cutting processors’ revenue and ultimately the prices offered for raw milk. The sector’s productivity gains provide some protection: average yield per dairy cow in Poland reached about 7,465 litres, according to IERiGŻ estimates. In herds covered by milk-performance recording, yield exceeded 9,860 kilograms per cow, 2.5% more than a year earlier but still about 10% below the EU average.

Industry seeks tighter rules on buyer practices

Industry representatives say pressure from retail chains adds to the global supply imbalance. At a meeting in the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development on 17 June 2026, participants argued that retailers’ demands are passed first to processors and then to agricultural producers. Proposed responses included amending legislation on contractual advantage, expanding the list of prohibited practices and establishing clearer cooperation rules for suppliers and retail chains.

The discussions also covered increasing the powers and resources of Poland’s Office of Competition and Consumer Protection, or UOKiK. The authority has examined dairy contracts covering procurement-price calculation and subsequent price changes, milk-quality testing, termination, contractual penalties, exclusivity and force-majeure clauses. The ministry and industry organisations aim to remove practices harmful to farmers and develop better market standards. With supply still expanding and export receipts falling, procurement prices are likely to remain under pressure even as modernisation, herd concentration and improving yields support Polish farms’ competitiveness.