Rainfall surge strengthens outlook for record Turkish wheat crop
Turkey’s wheat harvest could reach a record 24.5 million tonnes after rainfall increased 76% from last year, according to IAOM Eurasia President Eren Günhan Ulusoy. A larger domestic crop and strong stocks could reduce near-term supply pressure on the country’s milling industry while supporting flour exports.
Rainfall lifts the production outlook
Turkey’s wheat harvest is expected to reach a record 24.5 million tonnes after rainfall increased 76% compared with last year, according to Eren Günhan Ulusoy, Eurasia president of the International Association of Operative Millers, or IAOM. In a statement reported by nGazete, Ulusoy said the combination of a successful domestic harvest and strong inventories should insulate the Turkish market from short-term disruption in global grain supplies.
Ulusoy said he did not expect a domestic supply problem in the short or medium term. The forecast is particularly significant for Turkey’s flour industry, which has annual production capacity of 32 million tonnes. According to IAOM, Turkey accounts for 23% of global flour trade and has been the world’s leading flour exporter for 11 years. More locally harvested wheat would give mills a broader domestic supply base, although the source did not provide a forecast for Turkey’s wheat imports or flour exports.
Millers face a volatile Black Sea market
The improved Turkish outlook contrasts with mounting risks around Russia and Ukraine. Ulusoy said attacks were affecting port and logistics infrastructure on both sides, including the Izmail and Black Sea routes. He described current conditions as more sensitive than during the initial crisis in 2022, when Ukrainian ports were closed while Russian ports remained open. Russia and Ukraine together provide about 30% of global wheat supply, making disruptions to their export capacity relevant to prices and procurement across regional markets.
Citing the latest US Department of Agriculture estimates, Ulusoy placed Russia’s expected exports at 43-46 million tonnes and Ukraine’s at 13.5 million tonnes following logistics blockages. He also pointed to the growing role of the United States, Canada and Kazakhstan as the export shares of Russia and Ukraine decline. For Turkish processors, a larger domestic harvest could provide a buffer against freight disruption and price volatility, while continued access to alternative origins remains important for mills serving export markets.
Export opportunities amid European drought
Severe drought across Europe is reducing crop yields, according to Ulusoy. He said Turkey’s flour and bakery-products capacity, combined with its logistics position, could help the country cover part of the resulting regional shortfall and strengthen its presence in new markets. The opportunity is concentrated in processed grain products: Turkey’s established milling base can convert available wheat into flour for nearby destinations where local harvests or processing supplies are under pressure.
The wider Eurasian market remains central to that strategy. IAOM’s Eurasia region covers 32 countries, more than 2 billion people and an economy valued at $7.1 trillion. It represents 30% of world wheat production and 55% of global flour exports. The fifth IAOM Eurasia Conference and Exhibition is scheduled for September 28-29 in Tashkent, Uzbekistan, with more than 1,000 industry professionals expected. Ulusoy highlighted Uzbekistan’s milling sector and its use of Kazakh wheat to export flour to neighbouring countries. Against this backdrop, Turkey’s 24.5 million-tonne crop forecast offers its millers greater supply security, but the commercial impact will still depend on harvest quality, domestic demand and conditions along Black Sea trade routes.
