Polish steelmakers see price support but await a sustained demand recovery

Prices and trade measures halt the decline

Polish steel companies are showing cautious optimism after a difficult first half, as higher steel prices and tighter European Union trade protections begin to support the market. However, the companies cited by WNP.pl distinguish between an improvement in expectations and a measurable recovery in demand.

Henryk Orczykowski, president of Stalprofil, described the price increase in the second half as an initial sign that the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, or CBAM, and new steel import quotas are working. He said the measures had slowed the inflow of imported steel and helped stop and reverse the deterioration of market conditions. Without them, in his assessment, the European market and steel industry would have faced a severe collapse.

The protective effect remains incomplete. According to Orczykowski, European buyers accumulated large stocks of imported material at the end of last year and during the first quarter. Those inventories continue to weigh on the market, while demand for investment goods remains very low in both Poland and Europe. He said there was still no clear acceleration in economic activity.

Companies report stabilisation, not a demand boom

Bowim also identified signs of improvement in its preliminary financial information for the first half. The company attributed its results to stabilising demand and steel-product prices following an earlier market correction. Purchasing and operating-cost optimisation supported profitability and margins.

Bowim also pointed to regulatory changes, particularly the implementation of CBAM from 1 January 2026 and new protective measures effective from 1 July 2026 that restrict cheap, duty-free steel imports. Even so, the company said the market remained volatile because of energy costs, the pace of demand recovery in steel-consuming sectors and geopolitical risks.

Cognor Holding, which clearly improved its results during the first half, sees a more supportive political and macroeconomic environment over the medium and long term. President and principal shareholder Przemysław Sztuczkowski said EU and Polish policies were beginning to favour reindustrialisation and investment in higher-value industries. He described CBAM and the proposed post-safeguard system as useful tools that still require refinement. Cognor has not yet experienced a material benefit, but expects the measures to support its business when combined with demand from SAFE and Poland’s National Recovery Plan, known as KPO.

Infrastructure pipeline must become actual orders

The draft Polish state budget for 2027 gives priority to strategic infrastructure investment, according to Sztuczkowski. Projects including Port Polska, a nuclear power plant, the Eastern Shield, railway modernisation and construction, and port development could generate substantial demand for several types of steel.

Stalprofil, Bowim and Cognor nevertheless condition further improvement on an actual increase in economic activity. Orczykowski said the market was waiting for KPO-linked projects and investment in stronger defence capabilities. He does not expect a visible improvement in the third quarter, when holidays normally reduce industrial activity and steel demand, but Stalprofil is looking for better conditions from the fourth quarter.

A further obstacle is the gap between government statements supporting domestic or EU local content and their implementation in regulations and tender conditions. Stalprofil is already reporting lower infrastructure revenue because few new investments are moving into execution. The company wants local-content commitments embedded in tenders before the number of contracts begins to rise. For steelmakers and distributors, the central question is therefore no longer whether policy can improve sentiment, but when announced projects will produce orders and physical steel consumption.