Polish pig prices face further decline as rising EU meat supply squeezes margins
Credit Agricole expects Polish pig purchase prices to reach a local low in the first quarter of 2027 as rising EU supply meets weak demand. Cattle prices have stabilized, but falling profitability and slower beef export growth continue to pressure producers.
Pig prices remain under pressure
Polish pig producers face several more months of weak prices as expanding livestock supply collides with subdued demand in the European Union and third-country markets. Credit Agricole, in its autumn 2026 AGROmapa report cited by Farmer.pl and Tygodnik Rolniczy, expects purchase prices to reach a local minimum in the first quarter of 2027. A gradual recovery may follow as poor profitability forces farms to reduce production and brings supply closer to demand.
Spain is adding to the imbalance. Pork production there is increasing while exports outside the EU have weakened, leaving more Spanish meat on the EU market. That additional volume is intensifying competition among suppliers and putting further pressure on prices received by Polish farmers and processors.
In July 2026, the average Polish purchase price for live pigs was 4.97 zlotys per kilogram, down 25.3% year on year. Pig feed averaged 1.56 zlotys per kilogram, a decline of 11.8%. Because livestock prices fell much faster than feed costs, the live-pig-to-feed price ratio dropped to 3.19 from 3.77 a year earlier, continuing a multi-year deterioration in production economics.
Higher export volume fails to protect revenue
Foreign trade provided little relief. The value of Polish pork exports, including live animals, meat and processed products, fell 6.6% year on year in the first half of 2026, according to Credit Agricole data reported by Farmer.pl. Export volume increased, but exporters obtained lower prices. In the same period of 2025, export value had risen 3.1%.
The combination of lower export prices and greater availability within the EU limits the market's capacity to absorb Polish output at profitable prices. Credit Agricole forecasts a Polish pig purchase price of about 4.80 zlotys per kilogram at the end of 2026, followed by a recovery to around 6.00 zlotys per kilogram by the end of 2027.
African swine fever remains a major downside risk. New outbreaks and the resulting trade restrictions could reduce export opportunities for affected EU producers, redirect more pork toward the internal market and delay the expected price recovery.
Cattle market stabilizes at weaker margins
The cattle market has begun to stabilize after a sharp decline in purchase prices. Low cattle availability, reflected in fewer slaughterings in Poland and the wider EU, is limiting further losses. However, weak beef demand and rising EU imports are preventing a clear rebound. The culling of dairy cows as milk production becomes less profitable is also adding beef to the market.
Polish cattle purchase prices averaged 12.85 zlotys per kilogram in July 2026, 17.6% below the previous year. Cattle feed cost 2.09 zlotys per kilogram, up 13.1%. The livestock-to-feed ratio consequently fell to 6.14 from 8.42, showing that cattle producers are being squeezed by both weaker output prices and more expensive inputs.
Beef exports grow in value but shrink in volume
The value of Polish beef exports, including live cattle, meat and processed products, increased only 1% year on year in the first half of 2026, compared with growth of 35.5% in the same period of 2025. Higher prices obtained by exporters supported the value figure, while the volume sold abroad declined.
Credit Agricole expects Polish cattle purchase prices to remain relatively stable in the coming months and reach about 13.20 zlotys per kilogram at the end of 2026. Its forecast then points to 12.50 zlotys per kilogram at the end of 2027. Pig farmers may therefore see some relief as supply adjusts next year, while cattle producers face a longer period of constrained profitability.
