Poland’s winter heating-fuel market tightens as pellet prices rise and coal imports grow
Polish households face expensive pellet and a narrower choice of domestic coal ahead of winter, while imports are filling gaps created by lower mine stocks and constrained production. The government says heating and power companies have adequate coal reserves and sees no current need for intervention.
Pellet costs climb after a cold winter
Poland is entering the heating season with sharply higher pellet prices, reduced availability of some domestic coal grades and growing dependence on imported fuel. The pressure directly affects about 450,000 households using pellet and around 3.5 million homes heated exclusively with solid fuel.
WNP reports that pellet currently costs about 2,400-2,800 zlotys per tonne, with some offers reaching 3,000 zlotys. In August 2025, average prices were about 1,200 zlotys lower. Estimates from the Polish Smog Alert put the annual cost of pellet heating at 12,852 zlotys, up more than 50% from 8,022 zlotys a year earlier. Only heating oil is more expensive under that calculation, at 14,880 zlotys a year.
Energy Minister Miłosz Motyka attributed the increase mainly to seasonality and told WNP that prices should not rise significantly further. He said additional imports were supporting supply because Poland could not increase the domestic availability of raw material used to manufacture pellet. WNP also identified restricted deliveries from Ukraine and Belarus as factors limiting availability.
Domestic coal stocks fall as production capacity contracts
The coal market presents a different but related risk. Business Insider Polska reports that imported coal remains available, but households face longer delivery times and fewer domestic lump-coal products. In mid-September, only three of 39 items were available in the largest domestic producer’s wholesale shop, while several nut and cobble coal products were listed as unavailable.
According to Industrial Development Agency data cited by Business Insider Polska, stocks at mines stood at 3.17 million tonnes at the end of July, down 44% from 5.66 million tonnes a year earlier. The previous winter reduced stockpiles by 2.7 million tonnes between November and May.
Polish hard-coal output totaled 42.8 million tonnes in 2025, including 30.5 million tonnes of thermal coal, the lowest level since the 1940s. Production rose 3.7% to 21.2 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, but sales increased faster and the difference was covered from inventories. Mine closures and planned employment cuts are further limiting flexibility. Industry employment fell from 71,200 people in January to 63,600 in July 2026.
Imports provide flexibility at a higher cost
Poland imported 7.4 million tonnes of coal in 2025, including 6.2 million tonnes of thermal coal. Kazakhstan supplied 4.2 million tonnes and Colombia 1.6 million tonnes. Thermal-coal imports reached 3.06 million tonnes in the first half of 2026, an increase of 168% year on year.
Imported supply is more expensive. ARA coal was quoted at $134.50 per tonne on September 21, equivalent to about 20 zlotys per gigajoule before transport to Poland, compared with approximately 13.77 zlotys per gigajoule for domestic fine coal. World coal prices were about 40% higher than a year earlier, while Russian rail tariffs on a major transit route were due to increase by about 8.5% from October 1.
Business Insider Polska’s source warned that weather will determine whether imports can close the gap. A mild winter would leave current stocks and imports sufficient, while conditions resembling the previous winter could make imported coal essential and expose buyers to logistics risks.
Government sees no immediate supply threat
Motyka said heating and power companies held sufficient coal stocks for the coming season and that the ministry saw no current shortage threat. He added that the government would act if such a risk emerged. The position avoids an immediate intervention similar to 2022, when state companies imported 12.4 million tonnes and about 4 million tonnes of unsold coal remained in ports as late as May 2024.
The supply may therefore be adequate in aggregate, but households, fuel distributors and utilities face different risks. Pellet users are already paying substantially more, domestic coal buyers have less choice, and utilities may become more exposed to higher import and transport costs if winter demand accelerates.
