Polish Poultry Purchase Prices Set to Fall to 5.80 Zloty/kg by End-2026 as Supply Rebounds, Credit Agricole Says

Supply recovery drives the forecast

After a brief rebound in July, the Polish poultry market is under pressure again, with recovering supply now the dominant factor shaping prices, according to Credit Agricole analysts quoted by agronews.com.pl. Poultry meat output rose in the first half of 2026 both in Poland and across the European Union, supported by good production profitability and a markedly calmer animal-health situation.

Poland has regained its status as a country free of highly pathogenic avian influenza in poultry. After a strong wave of Newcastle disease in the first half of the year, the number of new outbreaks has fallen clearly, and Credit Agricole expects this direction to continue. “We expect that, with supply growing further, poultry purchase prices will remain under downward pressure in the coming quarters,” the bank’s analysts said.

Export growth slows sharply

Between January and June 2026 the value of Polish poultry exports — covering meat, processed products and live birds — rose 5.2% year on year. In the same period of 2025 the increase reached 18.1%. This year’s result came from higher sales volumes, while exporters obtained slightly lower prices.

In July the poultry purchase price stood at 6.53 zloty per kilogram, 1.1% higher than a year earlier. Poultry feed fell to 1.63 zloty per kilogram, down 1.8% year on year. As a result, the ratio of the live bird price to the feed price improved from 3.89 to 4.01, meaning that despite pressure on purchase prices the economics of production remain relatively good.

Credit Agricole nevertheless assumes prices will decline gradually as supply rebuilds. “Taking into account the situation on the global and domestic poultry market, we expect the poultry purchase price to reach about 5.80 zloty per kilogram at the end of 2026 and about 5.45 zloty per kilogram at the end of 2027,” the analysts forecast. That would put prices clearly below the levels recorded in mid-2026.

Eggs stabilise after a summer slide

The egg market looks different. After marked price declines over the summer, recent weeks have brought stabilisation. Several opposing factors are at work: supply is rebuilding after disease-related losses and egg imports into the European Union are rising, mainly from Ukraine and Turkey, while seasonal demand is increasing and some categories remain relatively hard to source — particularly eggs from cage-free systems.

“In our assessment, prices will remain elevated against historical levels in the coming months, though with a further recovery in supply we expect them to fall gradually,” Credit Agricole analysts said.

In the first half of 2026 the value of Polish egg exports fell 1.6% year on year, against growth of 25.6% in the same period a year earlier. The decline stemmed primarily from a clearly lower volume of foreign sales, even as exporters achieved higher unit prices. The average price of class M cage eggs in July was around 56 zloty per 100 units, 8.3% lower than a year earlier, while layer feed cost 1.45 zloty per kilogram, down 1.9%. The ratio of the price of 100 eggs to the feed price fell from 41.4 to 38.7, pointing to weaker egg production profitability in annual terms. Credit Agricole forecasts a class M egg price of around 62 zloty per 100 units at the end of 2026.

What producers should watch

• the epizootic situation in flocks, which remains the single biggest source of price volatility;
• the pace at which supply is rebuilt in Poland and the wider EU;
• geopolitical developments, including in the Middle East.

For poultry producers, the key signal from the Credit Agricole forecasts is the recovery in supply, which is expected to determine the direction of prices in the coming months. For poultry meat the scenario assumes a gradual decline in purchase rates; on the egg market a cooling is also expected, although price levels are set to stay relatively high compared with earlier years. The market will continue to react strongly to flock health and to any disruption to supply.