Poland’s gas expansion faces stranded-asset risk as renewables reshape power market
Poland is adding gas-fired generation and LNG import capacity as coal’s share declines and Russian supplies disappear. Faster renewable growth, rising carbon costs and projected demand contraction could leave some new infrastructure underused.
Gas fills part of the gap left by coal
Poland’s power system is turning to natural gas as coal-fired capacity is retired, but the rapid expansion of renewable energy is changing how new gas plants will operate. According to Polski Przemysł, renewable capacity reached 37,777 MW at the end of 2025, exceeding 50% of the country’s installed power capacity. Renewables generated almost 55 TWh during the year, or 31.4% of domestic electricity production.
Solar accounted for 24.8 GW of capacity and wind for 10.5 GW. Meanwhile, hard coal supplied 29.6% of generation and lignite 18.8%. Gas produced about 20 TWh, equivalent to roughly 14% of the total, compared with less than 7% five years earlier. Monthly gas generation reached a record 2.8 TWh in November 2025. However, growing volumes of weather-dependent power mean combined-cycle gas turbines are increasingly expected to provide peak capacity and balancing services rather than continuous baseload generation.
New plants depend on capacity-market support
Poland consumes 19.4 billion cubic metres of high-methane gas equivalent annually. Power generation and district heating represent one-third of demand, industry 31% and households 27%. New gas capacity includes two PGE units at Gryfino with a combined capacity of 1,366 MW, commissioned in the fourth quarter of 2024. Their emissions intensity is below 0.35 tonnes of CO₂ per MWh, and the investment cuts annual carbon emissions by 2 million to 3 million tonnes.
ORLEN’s 560 MW Grudziądz unit has completed its first grid synchronisation and is expected to supply electricity for around 1 million households. PGE is also building a 600 MW CCGT unit at Rybnik to replace four 900 MW of retiring coal units by the end of 2026, while Energa is completing the conversion of Ostrołęka C into a 745 MW gas-fired project. Between 2018 and 2024, new gas plants received 32% of all funds contracted through Poland’s capacity market. The mechanism also adds costs: in 2026, the capacity charge for companies with variable consumption is 219.4 zlotys per MWh during peak hours. The final auction for 2030 capacity was held in December 2025, leaving future projects dependent on a replacement framework that rewards flexibility and storage.
Import security grows as utilisation risk rises
Poland has eliminated Russian gas from its supply mix, reducing its share from 52% in 2015 to 0% in 2024. Baltic Pipe can import up to 10 billion cubic metres annually from Norwegian fields, while the expanded Świnoujście LNG terminal has regasification capacity of 8.3 billion cubic metres and covers about 40% of national demand. It receives more than 80 LNG carriers per year. Two planned FSRUs in the Bay of Gdańsk would each provide 6.1 billion cubic metres of annual capacity, taking total LNG import capacity above 20 billion cubic metres. The first is scheduled to start operating around the turn of 2027 and 2028. Poland exported 2 billion cubic metres in 2025, with 99% going to Ukraine.
The system nevertheless covered 82% of domestic demand with imports in 2024. Forum Energii analyst Kacper Kwidziński said Poland paid 112 billion zlotys for fossil-fuel imports that year, including 1.5 billion zlotys for final deliveries from Russia; the cumulative bill since 2015 was 1.2 trillion zlotys. Economics could become more difficult if EU carbon allowances reach the forecast 2030 median of EUR 140-150 per tonne of CO₂. Global Energy Monitor estimates that unnecessary or prematurely retired EU gas infrastructure could cost EUR 48.6 billion. Instrat modelling indicates that Poland could avoid additional large CCGT plants after 2027 if renewables reach 19 GW of onshore wind, 6 GW offshore and 38 GW of solar by 2030. Under that scenario, gas plants would run fewer than 2,500 hours annually and require public support to remain commercially viable. Government documents project gas demand peaking at about 23 billion cubic metres in 2025-2030 before falling to around 13 billion cubic metres by 2040. With 1.4 TWh of renewable output curtailed in 2025, grid expansion and storage may compete directly with further gas investment for public funding.
