Peru anchovy shortage drives fishmeal prices higher and pressures aquaculture margins

Fishing halted in Peru’s main anchovy grounds

Anchovy fishing in northern and central Peru has been suspended since mid-May because El Niño has warmed the central Pacific and coastal waters between Ecuador and Peru. The fish have moved in search of colder water, while many of the remaining specimens are too small to catch. Peru’s Marine Institute, Imarpe, initially imposed a temporary moratorium and subsequently extended it indefinitely, RTVE reported.

The closure affects the world’s largest source of marine feed ingredients. Peru accounts for 20% of global fishmeal and fish oil production, with anchovy serving as the principal raw material. These ingredients are widely used in feeds for farmed fish, making changes in the Peruvian catch relevant to aquaculture producers well beyond Latin America.

Imarpe set a quota of 1,914,049 tonnes for the northern and central fishing grounds at the start of the year. Only 471,120 tonnes, or 24.6%, had been caught when the fishery closed. Activity in southern Peru has also been weak. The January-June campaign carried a quota of 251,000 tonnes, of which 64% was taken, according to Héctor Vega of commodity brokerage Perú Broker.

Fishmeal prices reflect scarce availability

The supply disruption has sharply changed indicative fishmeal values. Medium-grade product was priced at $1,800-$1,900 per tonne during presales early in the year, already 10% above a normal year. Vega told RTVE that the same material would now be worth $3,200-$3,300 per tonne if supplies were available.

Peru is not the only source of pressure. IFFO, the international marine-ingredients industry organization, told RTVE that production is also lower in other fishmeal-producing regions, including Europe, Africa and Asia. IFFO market research director Enrico Bachis said concern stems from this combination of broad supply constraints. Forecasts cited by RTVE indicate that El Niño’s impact could be high this year, with the greatest effect in the final quarter of 2026.

The global fishmeal industry produces an average of 5.3 million tonnes annually. Lower-quality grades, which contain less protein, compete with feed ingredients such as corn. IFFO data show their prices rose only 3% between 2010 and 2025. Premium fishmeal has become considerably more expensive because it has few effective substitutes in high-performance aquaculture feeds and diets for young animals. Demand for these grades consistently exceeds available supply, according to Bachis, leaving prices especially sensitive to catch volumes.

Feed alternatives limit the risk of shortages

Javier Ojeda, manager of the Spanish aquaculture association APROMAR, said a prolonged reduction in supply would raise production costs because feed remains one of the largest expenses in fish farming. However, higher input costs do not automatically translate into an equivalent increase in retail fish prices. Ojeda said lower anchovy catches could put prices under pressure but would be unlikely, by themselves, to cause a very steep increase.

Spanish feed producers have reduced their exposure by using fishmeal and oil made from processing and filleting trimmings, as well as agricultural plant proteins, algae, insects, authorized animal by-products and other alternative materials. Fishmeal remains particularly important in feed for gilthead sea bream, European sea bass and trout, but APROMAR does not expect the disruption to threaten production or cause shortages. The more immediate consequence is additional pressure on margins across feed manufacturing and aquaculture until weather conditions ease and anchovies return to Peruvian waters.