Panama rice millers and growers clash over El Niño supply risks

Millers seek coordinated risk assessment

Panama’s rice millers and producers are divided over whether El Niño poses an immediate threat to national supplies. The National Association of Rice Millers of Panama, known as ANALMO, has asked the government to establish an intersectoral technical committee to assess supply risks. Producers counter that physical stocks, approved imports and the harvest beginning to reach the market are sufficient to cover demand.

According to La Estrella de Panamá, ANALMO wants the Ministry of Agricultural Development, the Agricultural Marketing Institute, the Agricultural Insurance Institute and the Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology of Panama to participate. The millers’ association says water stress is disrupting planting in areas including Coclé and threatening the 2026 and 2027 crops.

The meteorological institute told Panama’s Cabinet Council that El Niño has a 95% probability of remaining strong during 2026. Rainfall could fall by as much as 55%, and the conditions may continue through the first quarter of 2027. Rice is Panama’s principal dietary staple, making the potential effect on availability and consumer prices a national concern.

Growers point to stocks and approved imports

The Federation of Rice and Grain Producer Associations of Panama, or Fapagrap, says supply decisions should be based on inventory and production data. La Prensa reported that total availability as of June 19, including physical inventory and pending imports, stood at 4,221,842.58 quintals. Against estimated national consumption of 779,000 quintals per month, the federation calculates that this volume would cover demand until November 28, 2026, even without the new harvest.

La Estrella presented the total as about 4.2 million quintals. Its breakdown included 2.62 million quintals of physical inventory, 214,000 quintals under the ordinary World Trade Organization quota, 786,000 quintals approved by the agri-food chain and 600,000 quintals to be imported by the Agricultural Marketing Institute. La Prensa separately reported that 940,000 quintals will enter Panama this year under quotas established through the Trade Promotion Agreement and the WTO, alongside the 786,000-quintal extraordinary quota and the institute’s 600,000 quintals.

Incoming crop shapes the import debate

Fapagrap said farmers planted 29,500 hectares between April and the first half of July: 4,500 hectares in April, 10,000 in May, 7,500 in June and 7,500 during the first half of July. Using a conservative yield of 90 quintals per hectare, the federation projects production of 2,655,000 quintals of paddy rice. Omar Spiegel, Fapagrap’s president, also told La Estrella that initial harvesting had produced yields above 100 quintals per hectare.

Rice takes approximately 120 days from planting to harvest. Fapagrap therefore expects April plantings to start entering the market in late July, followed by the May crop in August, the June crop in September and October, and the first-half-of-July plantings in October and the first half of November. These arrivals would progressively replace inventories consumed during the period.

The disagreement now centers on whether Panama should authorize additional imports during the second half of the year. Spiegel told La Prensa that more extraordinary imports are not currently needed and could saturate the market as the domestic harvest arrives, reducing prices paid to farmers. He said the agri-food chain reviews inventories regularly and normally makes import decisions three or four months ahead. Any additional requirement for 2027 should therefore be assessed after the harvest results are known. La Prensa sought the Agriculture Ministry’s response on supply projections, production losses and further imports, but the ministry had not replied by publication time.