Pakistan Targets $1.5 Billion Rice Opportunity in China as Indian Supply Faces Barriers
Pakistan sees an opportunity to expand non-Basmati hybrid rice exports to China as Indian shipments face non-tariff barriers. Industry executive Shahzad Ali Malik estimates the market could generate up to $1.5 billion for Pakistan, but exporters must meet Chinese certification and food safety requirements.
Pakistan identifies an opening in China
Pakistan is seeking to expand exports of non-Basmati hybrid rice to China as restrictions affect supplies from India, potentially creating a new competitive challenge for established suppliers including Vietnam and Thailand. Shahzad Ali Malik, founding chairman of the Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan and chief executive of Guard Agricultural Research and Services, estimates that the Chinese market could generate export revenue of up to $1.5 billion for Pakistan, according to Soha.
The opportunity is linked to China’s substantial import requirements. Estimates cited by Soha put Chinese rice import demand at about 3.1 million tonnes in the 2025-2026 financial year, making the country one of the world’s largest rice import markets. Pakistan produces both Basmati and ordinary rice and also has supplies of hybrid varieties commonly used in China.
Indian shipments face non-tariff constraints
India had previously increased rice sales to China. Between April 2024 and January 2025, it exported approximately 186,000 tonnes to the Chinese market, worth $65.59 million. Those flows are now being affected by non-tariff barriers and control requirements, including concerns about the possible presence of genetically modified rice, leaving a supply gap that Pakistan wants to fill.
Pakistan presents its non-GMO supply as a competitive advantage. Some Pakistani hybrid varieties were developed from parental lines imported from China, which could make cooperation on seed selection, cultivation techniques and quality standards easier. Malik said Pakistan should use its ability to grow Chinese hybrid varieties to compete with other exporters.
Trade access and logistics support competitiveness
The Pakistan-China Free Trade Agreement and infrastructure developed under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor could improve the cost and delivery-time competitiveness of Pakistani rice. Malik also pointed to Pakistan’s port network as a means of shortening transportation times to Chinese buyers. These advantages could become important when exporters compete for large contracts requiring predictable schedules and uniform quality.
Market access, however, will depend on more than production and transport capacity. Malik called for a coordinated government and private-sector strategy covering contract farming, high-quality seed, certification and compliance with Chinese food safety standards. Exporters and regulators would also need to strengthen pesticide-residue controls and develop contract models with Chinese buyers.
Large contracts require consistent yields and quality
Seed companies such as Guard Agricultural Research and Services could participate by supplying high-yield hybrid varieties. Raising output per unit of land while maintaining consistent quality would help Pakistan serve large export contracts. Supply-guarantee agreements or contract-farming arrangements with Chinese buyers could also provide more stable demand for farmers.
An expansion in China would have consequences beyond rice traders. Rice is one of Pakistan’s leading exports, ranking behind only textiles, and stronger sales could increase foreign-exchange earnings and support farm incomes in major producing regions such as Sindh and Punjab. The opportunity nevertheless remains conditional: preferential trade access and infrastructure can reduce costs, but shipments will grow only if Pakistani producers and exporters satisfy China’s increasingly strict certification, traceability and food safety requirements.
