OPEC cuts 2026 oil-demand growth forecast for fifth consecutive month
OPEC lowered its forecast for global oil-demand growth in 2026 to 380,000 barrels per day, 34% below its August estimate. The downgrade contrasts with a higher 2027 projection and comes as geopolitical tensions push Brent crude above $105 per barrel.
Five successive cuts reshape the 2026 outlook
OPEC has lowered its forecast for global oil-demand growth in 2026 for a fifth consecutive month, reducing the expected year-on-year increase to approximately 380,000 barrels per day. VietnamPlus reported that the new estimate, published on September 10 in OPEC’s latest monthly oil market report, was 34% below the forecast issued in August.
The sequence of revisions shows how rapidly the organization’s near-term outlook has weakened. OPEC projected growth of 1.17 million barrels per day in May, followed by 970,000 barrels per day in June, 780,000 barrels per day in July and 580,000 barrels per day in August. The latest figure is therefore less than one-third of the May projection, materially reducing the amount of additional supply the market would need to satisfy expected consumption growth.
Economic uncertainty weighs on consumption
According to VietnamPlus, OPEC’s revised forecast incorporates current economic trends and risks including the economic impact of geopolitical tensions, renewed inflationary pressure and persistent uncertainty surrounding US trade-tariff policy. These factors can weaken industrial activity, freight movements and consumer spending, limiting petroleum consumption across both developed and emerging markets.
The downgrade also underlines the unusually wide disagreement over the direction of demand. VietnamPlus reported that the International Energy Agency expects global oil demand to decline by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026, while OPEC continues to forecast growth. That gap is important for producers, refiners and traders because the two scenarios imply sharply different requirements for inventories, refinery throughput and upstream investment.
OPEC sees a stronger rebound in 2027
Despite cutting its 2026 estimate, OPEC raised its forecast for 2027. The organization now expects global oil demand to increase by approximately 2.4 million barrels per day year on year, compared with an August projection of 2.2 million barrels per day. The report attributed the upgrade to expected demand growth in both OECD and non-OECD countries.
The contrasting forecasts create a difficult planning horizon for the industry: limited growth in 2026 followed by a much larger increase in 2027. Producers must decide whether to preserve spare capacity or prepare early for the projected rebound, while refiners and crude buyers face uncertainty over the timing and regional distribution of consumption.
Supply policy remains unchanged as prices rise
At a September 6 meeting, OPEC and its partners in the OPEC+ alliance said they would maintain their oil-production policy for October. The group indicated that new production quotas must be agreed before decisions are made on subsequent steps. Keeping policy unchanged gives members time to assess whether weaker demand growth or supply disruptions will have the greater influence on balances.
Geopolitical risks are already supporting prices. VietnamPlus reported that Brent crude moved above $105 per barrel as conflict in the Middle East disrupted oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices rose by more than 6% during trading on September 10 amid attacks on shipping and further concern about supply interruptions. For importers, higher prices could intensify energy inflation even as OPEC reduces its demand forecast. For exporters, the price rise offers near-term revenue support, but repeated forecast cuts signal that underlying consumption may not sustain the same market tightness through 2026.