Oil surges as US-Iran fighting raises risks to Middle East energy routes
Brent rose 7.6% over the week to $96.28 a barrel, while US crude gained nearly 10% to $91.48. Reduced vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and tighter diesel supplies have increased risks for energy buyers, carriers and fuel-intensive industries.
Crude benchmarks post steep weekly gains
Oil prices ended the week sharply higher as renewed military attacks between the United States and Iran intensified concern about energy supplies and shipping routes in the Middle East. Shahrara News reported that Brent crude settled on Friday at $96.28 a barrel, up $0.76, or 0.8%, during the session. US West Texas Intermediate rose $0.18, or 0.2%, to close at $91.48 a barrel.
The weekly movement was substantially larger. Brent gained 7.6%, while the US benchmark advanced nearly 10%. Analysts cited by Shahrara News said a significant part of the increase reflected a higher geopolitical risk premium. That means prices can rise on the probability of a future disruption even before the market records a severe decline in physical exports. Any de-escalation and normalization of energy transport could therefore remove part of that premium, while a broader conflict could push it higher.
Strait of Hormuz traffic becomes a key signal
The immediate focus is the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic passage for global oil and gas shipments. Kpler data cited by Shahrara News showed that only four cargo-carrying vessels passed through the waterway on Thursday, compared with a daily average of about 15 vessels over the preceding 10 days. The sharp reduction does not by itself establish the volume of oil removed from the market, but it points to operational caution and a heightened risk of delays.
For producers, traders, refiners and importers, the distinction between an anticipated disruption and a confirmed supply loss is critical. Reduced vessel movements can lengthen delivery schedules and complicate procurement even if exports continue. A prolonged interruption would have wider consequences because the route handles both oil and gas. In the current market, the level of tanker traffic and the course of the US-Iran fighting are therefore the principal variables shaping near-term prices.
Diesel pressures spread beyond crude markets
The effect is already extending into refined products. Reuters reported, according to the source text, that average US retail diesel prices reached a record $5.85 per gallon. Attacks on Russian refineries and disruptions to product supplies have tightened the global fuel market. Lower US inventories and stronger seasonal demand ahead of the agricultural harvest could add further pressure. Diesel matters beyond passenger transport because it is widely used in freight, industrial operations and farming.
Financial institutions have raised their oil forecasts as the risk environment has deteriorated. Citi increased its average Brent forecast for the third quarter from $80 to $86 a barrel. ANZ analysts lifted their short-term Brent projection to $95 a barrel and said further gains were possible if conflict in the Middle East intensified. Higher crude and diesel costs could feed into freight, agricultural and manufacturing expenses, increasing inflation pressure in major economies. The market’s next direction will depend on whether physical energy flows deteriorate or vessel traffic returns toward normal levels.