North African Wheat Crop Rebound Cuts Imports as Sub-Saharan Demand Rises

North African harvests reduce import requirements

Africa’s wheat market is moving in two different directions as improved harvest prospects reduce import demand in the north while consumption growth maintains pressure south of the Sahara. Citing the US Department of Agriculture’s Grain: World Markets and Trade report published on August 12, 2026, Le360 reports that North African wheat production is forecast to increase from 17.4 million tonnes in 2025/26 to 23.1 million tonnes in 2026/27. The 5.7-million-tonne gain mainly reflects better rainfall and a recovery from drought, particularly in Morocco and Algeria.

Regional imports are consequently projected to decline from 35.1 million tonnes to 29.3 million tonnes, a reduction of 5.8 million tonnes. The increase in domestic output therefore almost fully matches the expected contraction in foreign purchases. North Africa’s import-dependency rate would fall from about 73% in 2025/26 to 60% in 2026/27, although the improvement remains vulnerable to another change in weather conditions.

Morocco accounts for much of the shift. Its wheat crop is estimated at 7.5 million tonnes in 2026/27, up from 3.5 million tonnes in the previous season. This remains a forecast rather than a final harvest result. Moroccan imports are expected to fall from 6.54 million tonnes to 3.7 million tonnes, easing the kingdom’s grain import bill if the production estimate is realized.

Egypt and Algeria still require large volumes

Egypt, Africa’s largest wheat importer, is forecast to buy 13 million tonnes in 2026/27 after its import estimate was lowered by 500,000 tonnes. The USDA attributed the revision to a large harvest and higher opening stocks. Egyptian production is projected to rise from 9.2 million tonnes to 10 million tonnes, but the country remains structurally dependent on imports and continues to carry the fiscal cost of bread subsidies.

Algeria’s 2025/26 imports were revised down by 300,000 tonnes to 9 million tonnes, while purchases in 2026/27 are forecast at 8.5 million tonnes. Consumption is nevertheless expected to reach 12.575 million tonnes. The figures indicate a modest reduction in foreign buying rather than an end to Algeria’s substantial supply deficit.

Sub-Saharan buyers face higher supply risk

South of the Sahara, imports are forecast to remain almost unchanged at 32.8 million tonnes in 2026/27, compared with 32.9 million tonnes a year earlier. Local production rises only from 9.7 million tonnes to 10.2 million tonnes, while consumption increases from 41.3 million tonnes to 42.6 million tonnes. Nigeria is expected to import 6.2 million tonnes and Sudan 2.8 million tonnes, both unchanged. Kenya’s 2025/26 import estimate was raised by 225,000 tonnes to 3.125 million tonnes, reflecting stronger regional demand pressure.

This exposure is becoming more costly as Black Sea logistics deteriorate. Le360, referring to the USDA report, says intensified hostilities between Russia and Ukraine since mid-July have disrupted shipments, particularly from Sea of Azov ports. Russia’s 2026/27 wheat export forecast was cut by 1.5 million tonnes to 46 million tonnes, while Ukraine’s was reduced by 1 million tonnes to 13.5 million tonnes. Russian FOB wheat was quoted at $224 per tonne, against $262 for the European Union, $292 for Canada and $321 for the United States. Since July, European prices have risen by $25 per tonne, Canadian prices by $20 and US prices by $26. Delays in lower-priced Russian supply could force African importers toward more expensive origins, widening food-import bills for markets such as Nigeria, Sudan and Kenya.