New Beet Crop Pushes Russian Sugar Prices Lower as Wholesale Hits Five-Year Low

Retail sugar prices in Russia began to decline at the end of September as processing of the new sugar-beet crop expanded supply, Rossiyskaya Gazeta reported. Sugar averaged 85.7 roubles per kilogram in retail, 1.1% less than a week earlier, according to calculations by the agribusiness analytical centre AB-Centre. Further declines are expected to be sharper: to roughly 83 roubles per kilogram by the start of October and close to 75 roubles by November.

Wholesale prices at a five-year low

The wholesale market turned first, back in August. At the end of July sugar was trading at 58.9 roubles per kilogram excluding VAT, a record for recent years. By 21 September the price had dropped to 41.6 roubles per kilogram, 17.3 roubles lower and the weakest level in five years, AB-Centre said.

Retail typically responds to wholesale moves with a lag of about a month and a half. Shops first sell through inventory bought at higher prices, and falling prices are traditionally passed on to the end consumer more slowly than rising ones. That mechanism explains why shelf prices have given up 1.1% in a week while wholesale quotations have been sliding since August.

Seasonality meets a well-supplied balance

A seasonal decline is not unusual in itself. Production and consumption follow different seasonal patterns: once beet processing starts, supply increases, so wholesale prices normally fall from July-August through to November-February, with the movement reversing in the first half of the calendar year. Output volumes, exports, imports and carry-over stocks are layered onto that pattern every season.

This season supply also remains high. The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies (IKAR) estimates that the sugar-beet sown area contracted by 4.4% in 2026, yet sugar output in the 2026/27 season is still expected to be respectable at around 6.3 million tonnes. With imports of about 420,000 tonnes, carry-over stocks of 360,000 tonnes and domestic consumption near 5.6 million tonnes, the surplus - which is also the potential export resource - is put at roughly 1.48 million tonnes.

Export potential that is never fully used

Russia has traditionally not taken up its entire export capacity. Over the past ten seasons it has never managed to ship the full surplus abroad. In the 2024/25 season, with export potential of up to 1.42 million tonnes, actual shipments amounted to about 970,000 tonnes. In 2025/26 the potential was assessed at 1.53 million tonnes against exports of 1.25 million tonnes.

The gap between potential and actual shipments stays inside the country and creates additional pressure on the domestic market. Every tonne that is not exported competes with new-crop sugar leaving the plants during the autumn campaign, and domestic consumption of about 5.6 million tonnes does not expand to absorb it.

Stocks and rising imports

Warehouse data confirm the picture. At the end of July 2026 sugar held at plants and in wholesale trade amounted to 608,000 tonnes, according to Rosstat. That is 4,000 tonnes more than a year earlier and 357,000 tonnes above the level of end-July 2015, the period preceding the current era of overproduction.

Growing imports, primarily from Belarus, are an additional factor. Combined with high domestic output and limited export offtake, they keep the balance loose heading into the peak processing months, when plants deliver the bulk of the season's sugar and pressure on wholesale quotations is usually strongest.