Nabeul forecasts 10% drop in citrus harvest as water shortages and heat hit orchards

Harvest begins with lower production forecast

The citrus harvest has started in Tunisia’s Nabeul governorate, with early varieties gradually reaching the market. Initial estimates point to a production decline of about 10% compared with the previous season, according to Bechir Aounallah, president of the local Union of Agriculture and Fisheries, speaking to the TAP news agency.

Nabeul produced nearly 270,000 tonnes of citrus fruit in the last campaign, out of national production of approximately 350,000 tonnes. The governorate therefore remains the centre of Tunisia’s citrus industry, accounting for about 75% of national output and supporting close to 20,000 jobs.

Water, electricity and heat constrain orchards

Aounallah identified insufficient irrigation water, repeated electricity cuts and the effects of the recent heatwave as the main causes of the decline. L’Economiste Maghrébin also reported that high temperatures caused fruit to fall, while the spread of diseases added pressure on growers and yields.

The industry has also lost about 5,000 hectares of citrus orchards in the districts of Menzel Bouzelfa and Béni Khalled. New production areas are emerging in Takelsa and El Haouaria, but they have not prevented an overall decline. Béni Khalled remains Tunisia’s largest citrus-producing district, with output of about 53,000 tonnes, supported by newer orchards that have entered production.

Current market prices for available varieties range from 4 to 10 Tunisian dinars per kilogram. Aounallah described those levels as encouraging for farmers, as they can help cover production costs and offset part of the losses associated with the smaller crop. For processors and traders, however, reduced availability may intensify competition for fruit as the season advances.

Export planning returns to focus

The weaker harvest also raises questions about exportable supply. L’Economiste Maghrébin reported that Aounallah called for export operations to be prepared in advance. During the previous campaign, shipments did not exceed 4,000 tonnes, compared with an initial forecast of more than 14,000 tonnes.

The gap between forecast and actual exports shows that production volume alone does not determine Tunisia’s overseas sales. Market access, fruit quality, logistics and domestic demand also shape the amount available to foreign buyers. With Nabeul supplying three quarters of national production, disruption in the governorate has direct consequences for domestic availability and any export programme. Supportive prices may protect growers’ revenue per kilogram, but importers and exporters will need to monitor harvest quality and marketed volumes before assessing how much fruit can be committed abroad.