Minas Gerais sugarcane crop seen at 82.5 million tonnes in 2026/27 as ethanol output jumps 27.5%
Conab's second survey of the 2026/27 sugarcane crop puts Minas Gerais at 82.5 million tonnes, 7% above the previous cycle, on a 5% yield gain and 2% more planted area. Sugar output in the state stays essentially flat at 5.56 million tonnes, while total ethanol rises 27.5% to 3.4 billion litres. Brazil's national crop is estimated at 705.2 million tonnes.
Sugarcane production in Minas Gerais is projected at 82.5 million tonnes in the 2026/27 season, 7% above the previous cycle, according to the second sugarcane crop survey published by Brazil's Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (Conab) and reported by Diário do Comércio. The increase in Brazil's second-largest cane-producing state comes almost entirely from better weather, and mills are channelling it into ethanol rather than sugar.
Yield gains lead the increase
Conab attributes the larger crop to a 5% rise in productivity and a 2% expansion in planted area. Average yields in the state are expected to reach 78 tonnes of cane per hectare, harvested from 1.05 million hectares. Fabiano Vasconcellos, Conab's crop survey and assessment manager, said rainfall through the production cycle was closer to normal than in the previous season. “Throughout the production cycle, climatic conditions were positive, with more normal rainfall levels,” he said, adding that the pattern had been visible since the end of the previous harvest and that cutting is expected to run until December.
Mário Campos, president of Siamig Bioenergia, the sugar and bioenergy industry association in Minas Gerais, said the state harvested 74 million tonnes last season and that the final outcome could exceed Conab's estimate. “In my view, the crop can pass 83 million,” he said. Campos noted that cane remains green in fields that would normally be under drought stress at this point in the year, a result of rain in May, June and part of July that also supported ratoon regrowth. He described the season as a recovery in cane productivity reflected in higher output.
Sugar flat, ethanol up 27.5%
Sugar production in Minas Gerais is set to be essentially unchanged from 2025/26, slipping 0.4%, or 25,000 tonnes, to 5.56 million tonnes. That leaves ethanol as the destination for nearly all of the additional cane, and the survey shows a sharp increase across both grades:
- Total ethanol: up 27.5%, to 3.4 billion litres
- Hydrous ethanol: up 37.2%, to 2.28 billion litres
- Anhydrous ethanol: up 12%, to 1.17 billion litres
Weak sugar prices drove the mix
Conab said the decline in international sugar quotations led part of the industry to reassess its production mix, limiting sugar output to the fulfilment of contracts already signed and directing a larger volume of cane to ethanol. Beyond industrial flexibility, the agency pointed to the biofuel's liquidity, which allows faster cash generation during the harvest — a relevant factor for mills managing working capital across a season that runs to December.
The sugar market has firmed more recently. According to Conab, the international market, marked by weakened prices, has picked up over the past few weeks on expectations of reduced supply from producing economies. Higher quotations could encourage sugar-energy units to steer cane back toward the sweetener, although the bulk of the 2026/27 mix in Minas Gerais has already been set.
National crop at 705.2 million tonnes
Brazil's total sugarcane production in 2026/27 is estimated at 705.2 million tonnes, a 4.7% increase over 2025/26 if confirmed, with Conab again pointing to more favourable weather than in the prior cycle. Minas Gerais contributes 82.5 million tonnes of that volume, second only to São Paulo among producing states. With harvesting expected to continue until December, and Siamig Bioenergia indicating the state crop could exceed 83 million tonnes, the sugar-versus-ethanol balance in the closing months of the season will depend on how far international sugar prices recover from their recent lows.
