Middle East disruption slows Kenya’s tea export growth despite higher production
Kenyan tea production increased 4.7% in January–May 2026, but export growth slowed to 3% as shipments to several traditional markets declined. Disruption around Gulf shipping routes has left millions of kilograms of tea in Mombasa and raised freight, insurance and transit costs.
Production rises as export growth loses momentum
Kenya’s tea production increased 4.7% year on year to 252.23 million kilograms in January–May 2026, according to Kenyan Wall Street. Export growth, however, slowed to 3% as steep declines in several established markets limited the industry’s ability to place the additional output abroad.
Iran recorded the sharpest monthly contraction. Business Today reported that Kenyan tea shipments to the country fell 98% in May, dropping to 0.025 million kilograms from 1.172 million kilograms a year earlier. The decline reduced demand from a market served through Gulf logistics at a time when producers and exporters were handling a larger domestic crop.
The weakness extended beyond Iran. During January–May, exports to Oman declined 59% to 3.41 million kilograms, while shipments to Sudan fell 59% to 2.89 million kilograms. Afghanistan received 0.37 million kilograms, down 68%, and exports to Kazakhstan decreased 23% to 3.57 million kilograms.
Gulf shipping disruption blocks established routes
Kenya’s Tea Board linked the May weakness in Middle Eastern trade to shipping disruption along the Strait of Hormuz. Business Today said the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb closed following the US-Israel-Iran escalation in March 2026, prompting vessels to cancel calls at Mombasa. Reuters separately reported a sharp fall in vessel traffic through the strategic waterway and increases in freight and security costs.
The disruption also affected Salalah Port in Oman, a consolidation point for tea moving to Iran, Egypt, Pakistan and the UK. According to Business Today, the port was attacked on March 11, 2026, and a fuel tank was hit. Interruptions at this hub have therefore affected cargo intended for markets beyond Oman itself.
The exposure is substantial. Available industry data cited by Business Today indicates that the Middle East accounts for 20–25% of Kenya’s tea export market. The share rises to 65% when Pakistan is included, because countries in this wider group use Gulf transshipment services.
Stocks accumulate in Mombasa
Between 6 million and 8 million kilograms of tea, valued at an estimated $23 million, have become stuck in Mombasa warehouses, Business Today reported. The East African Tea Trade Association said 2.3 million kilograms per week was not moving. These stocks tie up working capital and increase storage pressure for exporters, factories and traders.
Kenyan tea destined for Pakistan is now being shipped around the Cape of Good Hope in South Africa. The alternative entails transit times of more than 46 days, while higher freight and insurance charges make the route more expensive. The longer journey delays payments and complicates delivery planning for Pakistani buyers and Kenyan suppliers.
The Tea Board has warned that shipments are struggling to reach Oman, Sudan, Afghanistan and Kazakhstan. It specifically attributed the May Middle East weakness to shipping disruption, but did not identify a single cause for the declines in Afghanistan, Kazakhstan or Sudan. With production still increasing, Kenya’s tea industry faces pressure to restore Gulf routes or redirect more volume to other destinations before warehouse inventories rise further.
