Mexico Forecasts Beef Self-Sufficiency in 2026 as Milk Supply Lags Demand

Mexico projects recovery of beef self-sufficiency

Mexico could regain self-sufficiency in beef by the end of 2026 as national production rises to an estimated 2.3 million tonnes, according to Homero García de la Llata, president of the National Confederation of Livestock Organizations, or CNOG. The forecast points to stronger domestic supply in one of the country’s most valuable agricultural industries.

García de la Llata said Mexico currently produces more than 2.2 million tonnes of bovine meat annually. Output is expected to grow by close to 6% by the end of 2026, providing the basis for the CNOG’s self-sufficiency projection. The estimate remains a forecast rather than a confirmed production result, and the organization did not provide figures for current beef consumption or import volumes.

If achieved, the target would indicate that domestic production is sufficient to cover national beef requirements on an aggregate basis. The practical effect on import demand will also depend on product categories, regional availability, prices and the requirements of processors and retailers. Self-sufficiency at the national level does not necessarily eliminate cross-border trade in particular cuts or grades.

Milk production would cover about 70% of demand

The outlook is less balanced in dairy. Mexican milk production is forecast to reach 13.8 billion litres in 2026, equivalent to around 70% of national demand, García de la Llata told HOYTamaulipas. That ratio implies that domestic output would still leave a substantial share of consumption to be supplied from outside the national production base, although the report did not quantify the resulting import requirement.

The livestock sector has set a target of producing 15 billion litres of milk by 2030. Even if that goal is reached, the effect on the supply gap will depend on how Mexican consumption develops over the same period. For dairy farmers and processors, output growth must therefore be considered alongside demand, farmgate prices and mechanisms that provide a stable market for raw milk.

García de la Llata said purchases by Leche para el Bienestar should remain among the instruments used to balance the market. He described the public purchasing program as a price reference for thousands of producers. Its role is particularly relevant when farmers make decisions on herd management, feed expenditure and investment in additional production.

Infrastructure projects target more domestic value

The federal government, regional livestock unions and the governments of Sonora, Coahuila and Durango are developing infrastructure projects for cattle fattening and meat production, according to the CNOG president. Discussions have also begun on similar projects in Tamaulipas and Chihuahua, with the aim of generating more value added from livestock production.

Such investments could expand finishing and processing capacity closer to production areas. Their commercial impact will depend on project scale, implementation and the ability of producers to supply cattle competitively. The report did not specify individual project capacity, investment amounts or commissioning dates.

Livestock activity accounts for more than 43% of the total value of Mexico’s agricultural production and generates more than 700 billion pesos, García de la Llata said. Those figures underline the economic weight of the sector, but the 2026 outlook shows different supply conditions within it: beef is approaching the CNOG’s definition of national self-sufficiency, while milk production is still expected to meet only about seven-tenths of demand.