Lebanon’s Wheat Stocks Cover Three Months as Bread Production Costs Rise

Mill inventories provide a three-month buffer

Lebanon’s current stocks of wheat and flour are sufficient for about three months, according to Nasser Sourour, head of the country’s federation of bakery and oven workers’ unions. The estimate offers a limited supply buffer as regional military and security developments threaten maritime routes used to bring essential commodities into the country.

Separately, Antoine Seif, head of the bakery owners’ association in Mount Lebanon, said the wheat held at mills would cover three months of demand. He added that two vessels carrying a combined 12,000 tonnes of wheat were on their way to Lebanon. The incoming cargoes should reinforce commercial inventories, although no revised estimate of total stock coverage was provided.

Storage remains concentrated at flour mills

Lebanon has operated without the strategic wheat storage previously provided by the Beirut port silos since the port explosion six years ago. Wheat reserves are now concentrated at mills, leaving the country dependent on distributed commercial storage and the continued arrival of vessels. Despite the loss of the port silos, bread has remained available in the market.

The bakery federation is monitoring wheat and flour supplies daily with a crisis unit chaired by Economy and Trade Minister Amer Bisat. The work is being coordinated with Ahmad Hoteit and Issam Abu Jouda, director of the Cereals and Sugar Beet Office. Sourour said efforts were continuing to increase inventories and secure new import sources and corridors in case ports or supply routes were disrupted.

The routes identified as vulnerable extend from the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb to the Black Sea. Disruption at any of these points could affect shipping availability, voyage times or the cost of bringing wheat and other inputs to Lebanon. For mills, importers and bakeries, a three-month reserve provides time to respond but does not replace permanent strategic storage.

Bread price may change as costs increase

Sourour said bakeries face continuing increases in the cost of fuel oil, gasoline, electricity, transport, plastic packaging and other inputs used to produce a bread bundle. He questioned why declines in global oil prices during some periods had not been reflected in Lebanese fuel prices, while stressing that the federation was not accusing any party.

Lebanon’s Economy and Trade Ministry calculates the bread price through an agreed platform that tracks flour, diesel, plastic packaging, transport and other production costs, as well as the dollar exchange rate. Based on current costs, Sourour expects the price of a bread bundle to change during the following week. He said any adjustment should follow measured production costs and that future cost declines should also be passed through to consumers. The federation does not want a price increase, he added, but bakeries cannot absorb the full rise in raw-material, energy and transport expenses alone.