Larger global sunflower crop could ease prices and test Argentina’s export momentum

Supply recovery follows a season of scarcity

The global sunflower market could become better supplied in 2026/27 after poor harvests helped push sunflower oil prices to unusually high levels during the previous cycle. La Nación reported that adverse weather cut Ukraine’s 2025/26 sunflower production to only 10 million tonnes, while the European Union also harvested a relatively limited crop. The resulting shortage redirected international demand for sunflower seed and oil toward Argentina.

Argentina responded with a record crop estimated at between 6.5 million and 7 million tonnes, depending on the source. The country exported an exceptional 1.25 million tonnes of sunflower seed, compared with the 200,000-250,000 tonnes considered normal in earlier years. Sales of sunflower oil have already reached almost 1.6 million tonnes. Carlos Pouiller, director of AZ-Group, told La Nación that the scarcity of seed and oil, combined with a broadly supportive vegetable-oil market, lifted sunflower oil prices to $1,500 per tonne at the port of Rotterdam.

World output forecast to reach 62.6 million tonnes

The outlook changes substantially in 2026/27. According to USDA figures cited by La Nación, global sunflower production could reach 62.6 million tonnes, an increase of 10 million tonnes from the previous campaign. World stocks are forecast at 4.2 million tonnes, 46% above the prior cycle. If realized, those increases would provide processors and buyers with a larger supply buffer and reduce the tightness that supported prices in 2025/26.

The projected expansion depends heavily on a production recovery in the Black Sea region. Combined output in Russia and Ukraine is expected to increase by 18% compared with 2025/26, while European production is forecast to rise by 13%. These gains would restore major competing suppliers to the global market and make it harder for Argentine exporters to repeat the unusually large seed shipments achieved during the shortage.

Higher crushing may absorb part of the crop

Demand from crushers offers a counterweight to the larger harvest. Global sunflower crushing is projected to increase by 12% to 56 million tonnes. That growth would absorb a significant share of additional seed production and support supplies of sunflower oil and meal. However, production of 62.6 million tonnes would still exceed projected crushing by 6.6 million tonnes, although the two figures are not equivalent to a complete global supply-and-demand balance because stocks and other uses also matter.

Argentina is expected to plant around 3 million hectares of sunflower, supporting expectations for another strong crop. The commercial challenge will be to sustain both seed exports and the crushing levels reached in the latest campaign as Russia, Ukraine and Europe recover. Pouiller said domestic prices of about $500 per tonne seen this month would be difficult to obtain next season if the global forecasts are confirmed. He suggested using a level closer to $400 per tonne when calculating margins. For Argentine growers, processors and exporters, the projected $100-per-tonne difference makes yield, logistics and processing efficiency more important as the market moves away from acute scarcity.