Kazakhstan's wheat harvest falls to 15.2 million tonnes, but prices hold above last season
Kazakhstan will harvest 15.2 million tonnes of wheat in 2026, down 4.1 million tonnes from 2025, the Grain Union of Kazakhstan told the EURASIAN AGRICOM-2026 conference in Astana. Domestic prices are running 10,000 to 12,000 tenge per tonne above last season and the union expects no decline. Wheat-group exports are forecast to retreat from a record 15.7 million tonnes to 11.7 million in grain equivalent.
Kazakhstan's 2026 wheat harvest will come in at 15.2 million tonnes, down 4.1 million tonnes from the 19.3 million tonnes collected in 2025. The figures were presented by Yevgeniy Karabanov, head of the analytics committee at the Grain Union of Kazakhstan, at the EURASIAN AGRICOM-2026 conference, which opened in Astana on 1 October at the Rixos President hotel, as reported by regtv.kz.
Total grain output across all crops is expected at 21.45 million tonnes, of which wheat accounts for 15.2 million tonnes. Karabanov described the season's structural shift as a contraction in the area sown to wheat and rice alongside a sharp expansion in maize plantings.
Prices above last season despite the smaller crop
Domestic wheat prices in Kazakhstan are currently 10,000 to 12,000 tenge per tonne higher than at the same stage of last season, and export prices are also up. That runs against the widely held expectation that an inflow of cheap Russian grain would pull down both Kazakhstan's internal market and prices across Central Asia.
The Grain Union of Kazakhstan does not expect wheat prices to fall from here, although it is not forecasting significant gains either. Restrictions introduced on deliveries of Russian wheat into Kazakhstan are credited with holding the price line.
Russian wheat imports are still growing in volume. The Grain Union puts them at 2.5 million tonnes in the 2025/26 marketing year, with more than 3.5 million tonnes expected this season. The bulk of that is low-quality grain destined for poultry plants and feed flour production rather than for milling.
Exports retreat from a record year
In 2025/26 Kazakhstan shipped record grain volumes. Exports of the wheat group — wheat together with food flour and feed flour counted in grain equivalent — reached 15.7 million tonnes, of which wheat itself accounted for 8.8 million tonnes.
Volumes will be lower in the new season because of both the smaller domestic crop and competition from Russian grain. The Grain Union expects exports of the grain group, including flour, at 11.7 million tonnes in grain equivalent, with wheat at 6.6 million tonnes.
That implies a drop of about 4 million tonnes in grain-equivalent shipments of the wheat group year on year, and a reduction of roughly 2.2 million tonnes in wheat exports specifically — broadly in line with the 4.1 million tonne fall in the crop itself.
Durum constrained by logistics, not supply
Durum wheat, traditionally shipped from Kazakhstan to Europe, is a particular concern. Durum exports reached 425,800 tonnes in 2025/26, while the forecast for the new season is only 300,000 tonnes — some 150,000 tonnes below the volume the country could physically move.
"This is not a production forecast, it is an export forecast. We could ship more, but the existing logistics constraints will not allow it. In general, our export potential for durum wheat is 450,000 tonnes," Karabanov said.
Barley redirected as Russia takes Iran
Barley exports are also set to decline, to 1 million tonnes in the 2026/27 marketing year from 1.37 million tonnes in 2025/26. The problem lies in the Iranian direction, where Russian barley dominates this season. Kazakhstan will redirect its feed grain to Central Asia and China. Barley is also in active domestic use among livestock producers and feed flour manufacturers.
