Kazakhstan exhausts 95.9% of its sunflower seed export potential
Kazakhstan exported 196,500 tonnes of sunflower seed in the first 11 months of the 2025/26 marketing year, down 10.1% year on year. With 95.9% of the revised annual forecast already shipped and July exports falling sharply, little supply remains available before the season ends.
Eleven-month exports decline
Kazakhstan exported 196,500 tonnes of sunflower seed during the first 11 months of the 2025/26 marketing year, a decrease of 10.1% from the same period of the previous season, according to UkrAgroConsult. The result leaves the country close to exhausting the volume of seed available for foreign buyers before the end of the marketing year.
The slowdown became particularly pronounced in July, when shipments fell to just 7,500 tonnes. That was 2.44 times less than in June, indicating that the remaining exportable surplus is becoming increasingly limited rather than merely reflecting a gradual seasonal decline.
Forecast cut as domestic demand strengthens
The Grain Union of Kazakhstan reduced its forecast for sunflower seed exports in the current season by 5,000 tonnes to 205,000 tonnes. Shipments during the first 11 months therefore represented 95.9% of the revised annual projection. Only a relatively small volume remains within that forecast, substantially limiting the scope for an increase in exports before the close of 2025/26.
UkrAgroConsult identified high domestic sunflower seed prices, expansion of Kazakhstan's own processing industry and the export duty as the main factors restraining shipments. The duty is set at 20% of customs value, but no less than €100 per tonne. Together, these conditions make domestic use more attractive and reduce the incentive to sell unprocessed seed abroad.
China retains dominant position
China remained the largest buyer, accounting for 81.9% of Kazakhstan's total sunflower seed exports. However, deliveries to the Chinese market declined by 12% to 161,000 tonnes. The concentration of shipments in one destination means that weaker overall availability in Kazakhstan is felt most directly by Chinese importers.
Exports to other regional markets also contracted sharply. Shipments to Uzbekistan fell 3.9-fold to 3,600 tonnes, while deliveries to Tajikistan dropped 2.67-fold to 900 tonnes. Turkey was the only major destination to record growth: exports there increased 6.4-fold to 7,700 tonnes. Even after that expansion, Turkey remained far behind China in absolute volume.
Imports also move lower
Kazakhstan simultaneously reduced sunflower seed imports, which mainly originate in Russia's border regions. Imports totaled 127,500 tonnes over the first 11 months of the season, down 14.9% year on year. The decline limits the ability of incoming Russian supply to offset tighter domestic availability or sustain additional seed exports.
The combined movement in trade points to a continued redirection of Kazakhstan's sunflower market toward domestic processing. High local prices and the export duty are restricting outbound seed flows, while processing capacity is competing for raw material at home. For traders and foreign buyers, the approach of the seasonal export ceiling means that near-term seed availability from Kazakhstan is likely to remain constrained until new-crop supplies enter the market.
