Drought could cut Kazakhstan’s wheat harvest by 30% and constrain planned China sales
Kazakhstan’s wheat harvest could fall to 13–13.5 million tonnes after extreme heat and drought damaged yields. Higher domestic prices and a shortage of lower-grade grain may constrain feed flour production and planned exports to China.
Harvest forecast falls to 13–13.5 million tonnes
Kazakhstan’s wheat harvest could decline by 30% from its long-term average to 13–13.5 million tonnes after abnormal heat and drought damaged crops across major producing regions, Pravda.ru reported, citing agricultural publication ElDala.kz. The projected volume compares with 19.3 million tonnes harvested in 2025 and would substantially reduce the grain available to millers, livestock-feed producers and exporters.
The most severe damage was reported in the Karaganda, Pavlodar and Abai regions, as well as southern parts of the Akmola region. According to Kazhydromet data cited in the report, temperatures from May through July were 1–5 degrees Celsius above normal. By August, most of Kazakhstan was experiencing severe drought.
Heat during flowering cuts yields
Farmers who planted wheat in the first half of May encountered temperatures of 40 degrees Celsius during flowering. The heat disrupted pollination and caused widespread formation of empty ears, directly reducing the volume of grain that could be harvested.
Early-sown fields yielded 10–12 centners per hectare, compared with a normal level of 20 centners per hectare. Farms using less advanced agricultural practices recorded yields as low as 7 centners per hectare. Experts cited by the publications expect the national average to reach no more than 14–15 centners per hectare. The figures indicate that the decline is not limited to isolated fields and could affect the national supply balance.
Prices rise as crop quality changes
Signs of tighter availability have already appeared in northern Kazakhstan. Third-class wheat is trading at 90,000 tenge per tonne, while high-protein hi-pro grain containing more than 30% gluten costs as much as 130,000 tenge per tonne. These prices increase procurement costs for processors and traders that need Kazakh-origin grain.
At the same time, cheaper Russian grain is putting pressure on Kazakhstan and other Central Asian markets. Buyers must choose between more expensive domestic wheat and lower-priced imports from Russia. That competition could restrict further increases in Kazakh prices, but it also creates pressure on local farmers whose harvest volumes have already fallen.
Lower-grade grain shortage affects China plans
The drought has also changed the composition of the crop. Fourth- and fifth-class wheat is reportedly almost absent because this season’s grain has unusually high gluten content. While stronger protein levels can support the value of milling wheat, the lack of lower-grade grain creates a shortage for feed flour manufacturers.
Those producers had planned to export as much as 3 million tonnes of feed flour to China. The reduced harvest and limited supply of suitable raw material now put that target at risk. Producers may need to compete for scarcer grain, use alternative inputs or pay prices shaped by the higher-value food wheat market. For Chinese buyers, the central issue is therefore not only Kazakhstan’s total crop size but whether processors can secure enough grain of the required grade to fulfil planned sales.
