Kazakh coal transit rises 26% through Russian Baltic and southern ports

Kazakh transit drives terminal growth

Transshipment of Kazakh coal through Russian Baltic and southern ports reached 7.9 million tonnes in January–July 2026, according to Ulysmedia.kz. The volume increased by 1.6 million tonnes, or 26%, from the same period a year earlier, giving Kazakh supply a larger role in cargo flows through Russia’s northwestern and southern terminals.

Russian coal handled on the same routes totaled 35.4 million tonnes, 1% below the previous year’s result. Combined Russian and Kazakh volumes reached 43.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.3 million tonnes, or 3%. The figures indicate that Kazakh transit accounted for all of the net growth, offsetting the contraction in Russian cargo.

Rail agreement and sanctions exemption support flows

Two policy and logistics developments preceded the increase. Russian Railways and Kazakhstan Temir Zholy agreed in April 2025 to expand deliveries of Kazakh coal to Russian ports. The arrangement improved the framework for moving landlocked Kazakh production across Russian railways to maritime terminals.

In July 2025, the European Union also exempted operations involving several Russian ports from sanctions when those operations concerned the transit of coal originating in Kazakhstan. The measure reduced a regulatory obstacle for companies handling cargo that crosses Russia but is not of Russian origin.

The resulting growth highlights Kazakhstan’s dependence on transit infrastructure for access to seaborne markets. It also gives Russian railway operators and port terminals additional cargo at a time when their domestic coal volumes on these routes are declining. For producers and traders, access depends on both rail capacity and the ability of foreign vessels to call at the relevant ports.

Black Sea disruption threatens second-half supply

That vulnerability became evident in August, when shipments of Russian and Kazakh coal through Black Sea ports almost stopped. Ulysmedia.kz reported that foreign shipowners declined to enter ports in the Azov–Black Sea basin after Ukrainian drone strikes on civilian merchant vessels. The disruption affects both Russian exports and Kazakh transit, despite the different origin and regulatory status of the cargoes.

An industry review cited by the publication estimated that the global market could lose 10–12 million tonnes of coal in the second half of 2026 if attacks continue and ports in the basin remain idle. It said losses could double in 2027 if the regional situation is not resolved. These estimates are conditional, but they show how security at southern ports may outweigh the earlier gains from rail agreements and sanctions exemptions.

Domestic coal prices rise in Kazakhstan

The transit expansion coincides with higher coal prices inside Kazakhstan. Retail prices increased by 7.9% year on year in January–August, while a tonne cost more than 20,000 tenge in some regions. In August, prices were about 17,500–17,700 tenge per tonne in Ust-Kamenogorsk and approximately 22,500 tenge in Petropavlovsk.

Kazakhstan’s antimonopoly authority describes the domestic market as highly concentrated because several large companies control most of it. Entry by a new producer would require development of a new deposit at a minimum cost of 4.5–7 billion tenge. Rising transit volumes therefore improve Kazakhstan’s access to maritime routes, but producers, domestic buyers and traders remain exposed to concentrated supply, higher local prices and disruption along the Russian export corridor.