Japan’s processed tomato market to exceed ¥42 billion in 2026 despite cost pressures

Market remains above ¥42 billion

Japan’s market for processed tomato products, including ketchup, whole and diced canned tomatoes and tomato sauces, is expected to exceed ¥42 billion in 2026. The estimate is based on Kagome data reported by The Japan Food Journal. The outlook points to continued demand even as manufacturers contend with rising production costs, weather-related risks to tomato yields and constraints in packaging supplies.

Ketchup accounts for approximately 60% of the market, while canned products represent about 20%. Tomato sauces and other processed products make up the remainder. This structure leaves ketchup as the category’s main commercial driver and makes changes in household cooking habits especially important to the market’s performance.

Ketchup gains a wider role in home cooking

The Japan Food Journal reports that ketchup is increasingly supported as an all-purpose seasoning because it can provide a finished flavor with a single ingredient. Its use is therefore expanding beyond familiar applications and into a broader range of cooking occasions. Producers are building their strategies around demand for convenience, shorter preparation times and products suited to changing household routines.

Kagome is targeting growth in textured condiments, responding to demand for products that contain noticeable pieces of ingredients. The company has cited interest in tacos, salsa and onion sauces and is developing this area through two vegetable-sauce products and other chunky vegetable sauces. For the autumn and winter season, it is also seeking to increase the frequency with which tomato-based dishes appear at the table.

On August 25, Kagome introduced two products in its “Microwave One Plate” seasoning range for dual-income households raising children. On the same date, it also launched “Soup de Gochiso Gohan,” aimed at working women and made with the equivalent of 120 g of vegetables per serving. The launches show how manufacturers are connecting processed tomatoes with time-saving meal preparation rather than relying only on traditional ketchup consumption.

Manufacturers compete through added value

Kikkoman Food Products, which operates the Del Monte brand in Japan, is recording sales growth for its “Lycopene Rich Tomato Ketchup.” The product contains 1.5 times the amount of lycopene and has secured repeat purchases from heavy users through a flavor emphasizing tomato sweetness. Commercials aired since last spring have also attracted new users, according to The Japan Food Journal.

Nagano Tomato, whose portfolio includes ketchup, sauces and juices, is similarly focusing on product value rather than price alone. Its household strategy emphasizes healthier product design, convenience and products that let consumers add an easy finishing touch to meals. Such positioning is becoming more important as elevated input expenses limit manufacturers’ room to compete through pricing.

Inputs, crops and packaging remain risks

The sector continues to face higher raw-material and energy prices, while abnormal weather raises concern about weaker tomato yields. These pressures can affect procurement costs and production planning across ketchup, canned products and sauces. The source material does not provide crop volumes or individual companies’ cost increases, but it identifies supply reliability as a continuing challenge for the industry.

Packaging has emerged as another operational issue. According to The Japan Food Journal, shortages of materials linked to the situation in the Middle East have forced some manufacturers to change outer-packaging specifications. Maintaining a market above ¥42 billion will therefore depend not only on consumer demand, but also on manufacturers’ ability to secure crops and packaging, manage energy costs and justify prices through convenience, health features and differentiated recipes.