Italian-Spanish extra-virgin olive oil price gap shrinks below €0.70 per kilogram
The wholesale premium for Italian extra-virgin olive oil over Spanish oil has fallen from peaks of €4-5 per kilogram to less than €0.70. Weak Italian demand and expectations of a 1.6-million-tonne Spanish harvest are reshaping competition, although hot and dry weather could reverse part of the decline.
Wholesale premium falls sharply
The wholesale price gap between Italian and Spanish extra-virgin olive oil narrowed to less than €0.70 per kilogram in early October, according to Teatro Naturale. The differential had previously reached peaks of €4-5 per kilogram, giving Italian oil a substantially higher premium over Spanish supply.
PoolRed recorded extra-virgin olive oil at €3.33 per kilogram in Jaén on 6 October. IsmeaMercati placed the Foggia quotation at €4 per kilogram on 1 October, producing a gap of €0.67. The Bari Chamber of Commerce reported a broader Italian range of €4.20-4.70 per kilogram on 6 October, with an average of €4.45.
Italian prices remain highly regional. Extra-virgin olive oil was quoted at €6.70 per kilogram in Trapani and Palermo, while organic oil in Bari reached as much as €5.50 and protected-origin DOP and IGP oil as much as €5.10. These levels show that origin, certification and local availability continue to support premiums even as the benchmark Italian-Spanish gap contracts.
Weak demand weighs on the Italian market
Teatro Naturale described the mainstream Italian market as having limited demand and abundant supply. Contracts for olives were reportedly reduced to a minimum, with prices as low as €30 per quintal. The publication expected Italian extra-virgin olive oil to remain near €4 per kilogram over the following weeks.
Some spot contracts were reported at €3.60-3.80 per kilogram, although Teatro Naturale did not regard them as representative market prices. It said these transactions involved small volumes sold by mills facing financial pressure. For processors and traders, the distinction between benchmark quotations and distressed spot sales is important because the latter can intensify price pressure without reflecting the cost position of the broader industry.
Spanish crop expectations remain decisive
In Spain, an initial government production estimate of 1.6 million tonnes raised expectations of ample stocks and availability. PoolRed’s extra-virgin quotation had been falling since early September, although the market appeared to stabilize from 2 October. Virgin olive oil declined from €3.20 per kilogram on 27 September to €3.08 on 6 October, while lampante oil fell from €3.15 at the end of September to €2.97 on 6 October.
The production forecast remains the main source of uncertainty. Spanish operators expect further price declines if the 1.6-million-tonne estimate is confirmed. Producers, however, see a risk that high temperatures and a lack of rain through at least mid-October will reduce the outlook. In that case, prices could recover toward €4 per kilogram. For Mediterranean buyers, the narrowing differential makes Italian oil more competitive relative to Spain, but purchasing decisions will continue to depend on harvest evidence, quality categories and regional supply rather than headline country averages alone.
