Irish milk output falls for second month, tightening supply to UK and EU markets

Milk volumes decline for second consecutive month

Irish milk production has fallen for two consecutive months, creating potential supply pressure across Europe and particularly in the UK. DairyReporter reported that volumes first moved into decline in April, falling 3.4%, before recording a further 1.5% decrease in May, according to figures published by CLAL.

The contraction matters beyond Ireland because the country is a significant dairy exporter. Ireland accounted for 6.3% of European Union dairy exports last year and is an important supplier to the UK. Lower Irish output could therefore reduce the volume of milk available to processors and exporters serving British and other European markets.

Dry weather and fuel disruption weigh on farms

Weather conditions are contributing to the decline. Heat stress has been less severe in Ireland than in Great Britain, but temperatures remain above normal summer levels. Limited rainfall has also affected Ireland’s predominantly grass-fed production system, reducing pasture availability and feeding through to milk supply, according to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board.

Fuel protests in Ireland created additional disruption in April. AHDB said the protests reportedly affected feed deliveries and milk collections, adding logistical pressure during the beginning of the seasonal production decline. A fuel subsidy was subsequently arranged for farmers and covers the period from March to July, which should offset part of the disruption.

Lower prices complicate the production outlook

Farm economics remain difficult despite the regional fall in output. Irish producers are still facing lower milk prices because global supplies remain abundant. Teagasac, Ireland’s national agriculture body, expects the average milk price in 2026 to be 20% below the 2025 average, limiting farmers’ ability and incentive to increase production in response to tighter local availability.

The European Union still forecasts milk production growth of 1.6% for the whole of 2026, although the expansion is expected to slow later in the year. The UK is already showing a similar deterioration: milk output fell 3.1% year on year in June, according to AHDB, with the steepest effect near the end of the month as heatwaves stressed cows and reduced yields. Simultaneous declines in Ireland and the UK could tighten procurement for processors, although abundant global supply and weak farmgate pricing may limit broader price gains.