ICC warns Iran war fertilizer disruption could trigger global grain-price shock

Fertilizer availability falls nearly 40%

The International Chamber of Commerce has warned that disruptions to fertilizer supplies linked to the war in Iran could develop into a global food crisis. According to RBC, the organization estimates that available fertilizer volumes have declined by nearly 40%.

The scale of the reported reduction makes the warning relevant across agricultural markets. Fertilizer is a central production input for grain growers, and a sustained shortage can affect both planting decisions and the amount applied per hectare. The consequences would depend on how long the disruption lasts, which fertilizer products are affected and whether alternative suppliers can fill the gap.

Grain prices face a new supply risk

The ICC expects the fertilizer disruption to create the risk of a global grain-price shock, RBC reported. The source material does not provide a specific forecast for the size of the possible increase, the timing of any price movement or the grain markets likely to be most exposed.

The immediate pressure falls on producers that must secure fertilizer before planting or during crop development. Lower availability can force farms to pay more, change application schedules or reduce usage. Each option can raise production risk: higher input costs weaken margins, while lower or delayed application can threaten yields.

For grain processors, livestock producers and food manufacturers, the concern is a delayed increase in raw-material costs. Fertilizer disruption does not translate into grain shortages immediately. Its effects move through planting, crop development, harvesting and marketing, meaning the largest impact may emerge only after current inventories and previously contracted supplies have been used.

Trade flows may shift toward available supply

A shortage approaching 40% would increase competition for fertilizer still available on international and domestic markets. Importers may seek alternative origins, while traders could redirect cargoes toward buyers able to pay higher prices. The information provided does not identify individual fertilizer types, affected routes, suppliers or importing countries, so the geographic distribution of the disruption remains unclear.

The warning also raises the prospect of changes in grain trade. If fertilizer constraints reduce production in some growing regions, processors and importing countries may need to source more grain elsewhere. Export availability would then become more concentrated among producers with reliable fertilizer access and sufficient crops, increasing exposure to local weather, logistics and government trade measures.

The central uncertainty is whether the nearly 40% decline represents a temporary interruption or a longer constraint on agricultural inputs. A short disruption could be absorbed through inventories, substitutions and altered delivery schedules. A prolonged shortage would carry a greater risk of reduced fertilizer use, weaker harvests and higher grain prices, broadening the impact from fertilizer producers and traders to the global food chain.