India overtakes Gulf suppliers in Kenya’s refined-fuel market

India moves ahead of established Gulf suppliers

India has replaced the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia as Kenya’s leading supplier of gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and fuel oil, according to data from commodity analytics company Kpler cited by energy economist Anas Alhajji. The shift marks a sharp reversal in a market historically dominated by Gulf refiners and trading companies.

Business Today reported that Kenya received approximately 200,000 barrels per day of petroleum products in July and 185,000 barrels per day in August. Those figures suggest that the disruption to traditional Middle Eastern routes has changed the origin of Kenya’s fuel rather than causing its overall import system to break down. The available reporting did not disclose India’s individual shipment volume or its precise market share.

The new ranking contrasts with Kenya’s 2023 trade pattern. Trade data published by TrendEconomy show that the UAE supplied $2.6 billion of non-crude petroleum oils that year, equal to 60% of Kenya’s imports in the category. Saudi Arabia supplied $698 million, or 16.1%, while India accounted for $283 million, or 6.56%.

Route disruption redraws procurement

Kenya has relied on a government-to-government petroleum supply arrangement since 2023, with major Gulf companies participating in the framework. However, disruptions affecting established routes from West Asia have forced suppliers and buyers to seek alternative loading points. India’s position on the Indian Ocean makes its refineries and ports a practical option for deliveries to East Africa.

Business Daily reported that Saudi Aramco, Enoc and Adnoc turned to ports in India, Belgium, Europe and the Red Sea to maintain deliveries to Kenya. This means India’s expanded role is not limited to Indian-owned molecules or direct transactions between Indian refiners and Kenyan buyers. Indian ports can also serve as loading and trading hubs for Gulf companies adapting their logistics.

Argus reported earlier that the loss of UAE gasoline cargoes had shifted Kenyan sourcing toward Europe, India and Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea refineries. It said April gasoline supply remained largely intact, although transport operators reported rationing, restrictions on bulk deliveries and tighter credit from oil marketing companies. The evidence points to a procurement network operating under greater logistical and financing pressure, even where aggregate import volumes remain relatively stable.

Commercial implications for refiners and buyers

For Indian refiners and traders, the change creates a stronger position in an East African market that imports multiple high-volume transport fuels. It also broadens a commercial relationship in which India was already Kenya’s third-largest trading partner in 2025-26, with bilateral trade of $4.31 billion, according to Business Today.

For Kenyan importers, greater use of Indian, European and Red Sea loading points reduces immediate dependence on the UAE route. It does not eliminate exposure to freight costs, shipping delays or geopolitical disruption. Buyers will therefore need to compare delivered prices, product specifications, credit terms and cargo availability across a wider supplier base.

The shift may prove temporary if Gulf routes normalize, but the difference from 2023 is substantial: India has moved from a 6.56% share of Kenya’s non-crude petroleum-oil imports by value to the leading position in the latest Kpler assessment. Whether that position endures will depend on refinery economics, route reliability and the terms offered by Indian and Gulf suppliers.