IMF sees crude oil staying elevated, adding pressure on emerging-market currencies
The IMF expects world crude prices to fall only slowly, raising costs for fuel importers and weighing on currencies like Indonesia's rupiah, which slid to Rp18,066 per dollar. OPEC+ is adding just 188,000 barrels a day in August.
The International Monetary Fund expects global crude oil prices to remain elevated and decline only gradually, a view that raises costs for fuel importers and weighs on emerging-market currencies, according to Antara News.
A slow path down for oil
According to Antara News, the IMF projects that world crude prices will not be able to fall quickly. The outlet reported that oil may need four to eight weeks to stabilize even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, underscoring how long supply risk premiums can linger after a geopolitical shock.
Rupiah under pressure
The rupiah weakened for a second straight session. Antara News reported the currency fell 52 points, or 0.29 percent, to Rp18,066 per US dollar on Thursday morning, after closing 34 points, or 0.19 percent, weaker at Rp18,014 on Wednesday. A firmer oil bill in dollars tends to widen import costs for net energy importers such as Indonesia, adding to depreciation pressure.
Supply signals stay mixed
On the supply side, OPEC+ agreed on Sunday, July 5, to raise its maximum August production quota by 188,000 barrels per day, Antara News reported. Additional output would normally ease prices, but downstream markets have moved unevenly:
- Malaysia cut non-subsidized petrol and diesel prices by 10 sen.
- Vietnam's Finance Ministry proposed extending tax incentives on petroleum products.
- The European Commission proposed a 21st sanctions package targeting Russia, including the energy sector.
For importers and exporters, the message is that benchmark crude is likely to stay firm while regional pump prices and policy responses diverge.